AHI Journal台積電每股配息 7 元完成填息，2 奈米與先進封裝迎三星雙軌策略TSMC Closes NT$7 Ex-Dividend Gap as 2nm and Advanced Packaging Secure Samsung Dual-Track Strategy
台積電除息 7 元盤中翻紅完成填息，伴隨聯發科導入 2 奈米旗艦晶片與三星HBM基礎裸晶採雙軌外包，先進製程產能預估延伸至 2027 年。TSMC completed its NT$7 dividend gap during intraday trading as MediaTek adopted its 2nm flagship silicon and Samsung moved to dual-source HBM base dies, extending advanced node visibility through 2027.
前情提要Previously本刊第 3 次談Our take #3 on 個股焦點：台積電
本篇重點：The key points:
- 台積電每股除息 7 元，除息參考價 2,378 元，盤中走高至 2,385 元順利完成填息。TSMC paid a quarterly cash dividend of NT$7 per share, opening from an ex-dividend reference price of NT$2,378 and rising intraday to NT$2,385 to fully close the gap.
- 三星客製化HBM基礎裸晶傳改採雙軌策略，首度導入台積電晶圓代工製程製造。Samsung reportedly adopted a dual-track strategy for customized HBM base dies, bringing TSMC's foundry process into its supply chain for the first time.
- 聯發科首款採用台積電 2 奈米製程的天璣 9600 Pro旗艦晶片亮相，預計最快 10 月上市。MediaTek unveiled its flagship Dimensity 9600 Pro mobile SoC, built on TSMC's 2nm node and scheduled to hit shelves as early as October.
- 法人圈對台積電 2027 年底CoWoS月產能預估自 16 萬片上修至約 18 萬片，德國新廠完成封頂。Sell-side analysts revised TSMC's year-end 2027 CoWoS monthly capacity projection upward from 160,000 to approximately 180,000 wafers, while its German fab completed its structural roof topping-out.
台積電於 9 月 16 日進行季配息 7 元交易，早盤雖受市場觀望一度觸及 2,375 元貼息，隨後翻紅至 2,385 元完成填息。同日記憶體龍頭三星傳出客製化HBM基礎裸晶採雙軌外包並納入台積電製程，確立先進邏輯製程向記憶體架構滲透的趨勢。TSMC went ex-dividend for its NT$7 quarterly payout on September 16. Despite early hesitation that dipped shares to NT$2,375, buying interest pushed the stock to NT$2,385 to complete the gap-fill. On the same day, reports emerged that memory leader Samsung Electronics adopted a dual-sourcing strategy for customized HBM base dies that includes TSMC, confirming the steady expansion of advanced logic foundry into memory architecture.
台積電（2330）：除息表現與資本運作TSMC (2330): Dividend Performance and Capital Allocations
台積電於 9 月 16 日進行季配息除息交易。公司每股配發現金股利 7 元，除息參考價為 2,378 元。市場避險情緒與觀望買盤壓抑開盤表現，股價最低一度觸及 2,375 元，呈現短暫貼息。隨後買盤在盤中進駐，股價強勢翻紅至 2,385 元，順利完成填息。Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (2330) traded ex-dividend on September 16 for its quarterly cash payout of NT$7 per share against an ex-dividend reference price of NT$2,378. Early-session hedging and wait-and-see sentiment dragged shares to an intraday low of NT$2,375, briefly trading below the reference price, before renewed buying drove the stock to NT$2,385 to complete the gap-fill.
經濟部投審司統計前 8 月台灣對外投資金額達 623.89 億美元。台積電挹注美國子公司 200 億美元增資，成為海外投資的主要推升動能。台積電德國新廠建廠進度如期推進，近期已順利完成廠房封頂作業。該廠維持既定資本支出步調，預計明年展開移機，全面準備投產作業。On the overseas capital front, data from the Ministry of Economic Affairs' Department of Investment Review showed Taiwan's outbound direct investment reached US$62.389 billion in the first eight months, propelled primarily by TSMC's US$20 billion capital injection into its U.S. subsidiary. In Germany, construction of TSMC's new Dresden fab remains on schedule, having recently completed its roof topping-out. The company is maintaining its planned capital expenditure pace, with equipment move-in slated for next year ahead of volume production.
台積電（2330）：客戶拓展與先進製程滲透TSMC (2330): Customer Wins and Advanced Node Penetration
聯發科在先進製程領域正式發表天璣 9600 系列手機晶片。旗艦款天璣 9600 Pro首度導入台積電 2 奈米製程，架構上全面採用全大核設計。終端產品預計最快 10 月問世，宣告台積電 2 奈米製程正式推進至智慧型手機主流市場。In leading-edge logic, MediaTek officially introduced its Dimensity 9600 smartphone platform, headlined by the flagship Dimensity 9600 Pro built on TSMC's 2nm process using an all-big-core architecture. Commercial devices are scheduled to debut as early as October, marking the initial deployment of TSMC's 2nm capacity in high-volume smartphone applications.
記憶體領域的供應鏈架構亦出現結構性變化。南韓三星電子在客製化HBM世代調整發展策略。其基礎裸晶不再完全由自家晶圓代工生產，改採三星與台積電並行的雙軌供應鏈，全力配合客戶客製化規格需求。SK海力士下一代 3D DRAM架構同步曝光，規劃將儲存單元與周邊電路分離。周邊電路預計導入先進邏輯代工製程，這項轉變讓邏輯晶圓代工切入記憶體市場的合作空間進一步延伸。Structural shifts are also underway across the memory sector. South Korea's Samsung Electronics has adjusted its strategy for customized HBM generations, stepping away from an entirely internal foundry model toward a dual-track framework spanning Samsung Foundry and TSMC to address bespoke customer specifications. Concurrently, SK Hynix disclosed an architecture for next-generation 3D DRAM that decouples memory cells from peripheral circuitry, planning to run peripheral circuits on advanced logic foundry processes and widening the addressable market for logic foundries in memory applications.
台積電（2330）：先進封裝產能預期TSMC (2330): Advanced Packaging Capacity Expectations
外部研究機構近期調整台積電先進封裝CoWoS產能預估路徑。機構預計 2026 年底CoWoS月產能將達 12 萬片。2027 年底月產能預估從原先的約 16 萬片上修至 18 萬片。2028 年底產能目前則大致維持在 18 萬片水準。External research institutions recently updated their projections for TSMC's CoWoS packaging roadmap. Monthly CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 120,000 wafers by the end of 2026, while the projection for year-end 2027 was revised up from roughly 160,000 wafers to 180,000 wafers. Forecasts for year-end 2028 are holding at approximately 180,000 wafers per month.
台積電SoIC擴產步調相較於CoWoS產能上調顯得相對溫和。AI晶片封裝面積持續放大，單一晶片消耗的晶圓面積隨之增加。這項變化同步拉高製程對材料與設備規格的要求，導致封裝產能的實質產出效率面臨新的技術門檻挑戰。In contrast to the upward revision for CoWoS, the expansion pace for SoIC remains comparatively measured. As artificial intelligence accelerators require larger package substrates, each unit consumes considerably more wafer area, lifting technical standards for materials and processing equipment and presenting new operational hurdles for effective packaging output.
本刊觀點：The Journal's View: 台積電完成除息 7 元的填息表現，顯示資金在利率會議前夕對其基本面仍具支撐力。
今天變了的是非傳統客戶的合作架構：三星在客製化HBM基礎裸晶改採雙軌代工、SK海力士規劃 3D DRAM周邊電路邏輯化，使先進製程的客群邊界跨入記憶體領域；沒變的是先進封裝依舊由台積電領跑，2027 年底CoWoS月產能預估已由 16 萬片調高至 18 萬片。
然而，共識中的裂縫在於先進封裝的瓶頸轉移：市場目前聚焦於片數規模的擴充，但晶片封裝面積擴大後，單一模組消耗的晶圓面積倍增，每一片晶圓所需的設備與材料規格拉高。若只看片數擴產而忽略單位面積良率與材料耗損，封裝實質產出可能低於帳面片數增幅。
本刊認為，先進封裝的產能定義正在分化，後續營收動能更取決於製程複雜度而非單純投片量。
TSMC's quick close of its NT$7 dividend gap reflects durable underlying demand ahead of central bank interest rate meetings.
What changed today is the framework of non-traditional customer relationships: Samsung's shift to a dual-foundry approach for customized HBM base dies and SK Hynix's push to separate peripheral logic from 3D DRAM storage cells push advanced foundry directly into memory territory.
What has not changed is TSMC's lead in advanced packaging, with year-end 2027 monthly CoWoS capacity estimates lifted from 160,000 to 180,000 wafers.
The crack in the consensus lies in the changing nature of packaging bottlenecks: the market remains fixated on raw wafer volume, but as package areas expand, each module consumes multiples of silicon area, escalating requirements for equipment and materials.
Gauging packaging solely by wafer capacity while ignoring area-based yields and material scrap risks overstating effective output.In the Journal's view, the definition of advanced packaging capacity is fragmenting, and top-line momentum will depend more on process complexity than wafer starts alone.
接下來看什麼：What to watch:
- 10 月中旬法說會：確認 2027 年資本支出走向與先進封裝月產能擴充目標是否維持在 18 萬片水準。Mid-October earnings call: Confirmation of 2027 capex guidance and whether monthly advanced packaging targets stay pinned at the 180,000-wafer mark.
- 10 月 10 日前公布的 9 月營收：若月增率維持正成長，則高階製程出貨暢旺說法成立；若轉負，顯示季底拉貨效應趨緩。September revenue due by October 10: Positive month-on-month growth would validate ongoing momentum in leading-edge shipments; a negative reading would indicate quarter-end pull-in effects are tapering off.
圖表與數字以公開行情與營收面板另行計算，行情資料日 2026-09-16。Charts and figures are computed from public price and revenue panels; market data as of 2026-09-16.
