AHI Journal明年度國防預算首度突破 1.12 兆元 全社會防衛論壇聚焦海空供應鏈與通訊備援Taiwan’s Defense Budget Tops NT$1.12 Trillion for First Time as Resilience Forum Targets Maritime Supply Chains and Backup Comms
總統賴清德公布明年度國防預算達 1 兆 1225 億元，全社會防衛論壇啟動海事監控、無人機非紅供應鏈及港群備援機制。President Lai Ching-te unveils a defense budget of NT$1.12 trillion for next year, while the Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience forum initiates maritime surveillance, non-red drone supply chains, and multi-port redundancy mechanisms.
前情提要Previously本刊第 11 次談Our take #11 on 台灣政局與國會
本篇重點：The key points:
- 明年度整體國防預算編列 1 兆 1225 億元首度破兆，目標於 2030 年達到GDP的 5%Overall defense budget for next year is set at NT$1.1225 trillion, crossing the trillion-dollar mark for the first time with a goal to reach 5% of GDP by 2030
- 海纜 7 法實施至今已針對關閉AIS等違規船舶裁罰 16 件，累計罰鍰達 853 萬元Seven undersea cable protection laws have yielded 16 penalties totaling NT$8.53 million for violations such as turning off AIS
- 台灣無人機出口近 1 年成長 55 倍，正以完全非紅零組件模式深化跨國供應鏈合作Taiwanese drone exports surged 55-fold over the past year, leveraging fully non-red components to deepen multinational supply chain partnerships
- 健保總額連續 2 年採 5.5%高推估編列，今年度規模正式達到 1 兆 82 億元National Health Insurance global budget adopts high-end 5.5% growth estimate for two consecutive years, officially reaching NT$1.0082 trillion this year
國防預算在明年度首度編列突破新台幣 1 兆元關卡、達 1 兆 1225 億元，占GDP比重持續維持在 3%以上。這項資源規模的確認，使全社會防衛體系從政策宣示轉入跨部會實質執行的配置階段，直接牽動海纜關鍵基礎設施防護、無人機非紅零組件外銷與商港備援能量的調度。Taiwan’s proposed defense budget for next year has topped the NT$1 trillion threshold for the first time, reaching NT$1.12 trillion and staying above 3% of GDP. Confirmation of this scale of funding transitions Taiwan's whole-of-society defense architecture from a policy concept into substantive, inter-agency resource allocation, directly impacting undersea cable infrastructure protection, exports of non-red drone components, and commercial port redundancy planning.
總統府全社會防衛防務規劃Presidential Office Whole-of-Society Defense Planning
總統賴清德於全社會防衛韌性國際論壇開幕式中表示，明年度整體國防預算首度突破新台幣 1 兆元關卡，編列達到 1 兆 1225 億元，占GDP比重持續維持在 3%以上，並設定 2030 年達到GDP的 5%為目標。過去 10 年間台灣國防預算已呈現翻倍成長。President Lai Ching-te stated at the opening of the Global Whole-of-Society Defense Resilience Forum that the overall defense budget for next year will exceed NT$1 trillion for the first time, reaching NT$1.1225 trillion. The total will remain above 3% of GDP, with an ultimate target of 5% of GDP by 2030. Taiwan’s defense budget has doubled over the past decade.
在演習整合層面，今年 8 月完成的國家團結月演練中，首度於城鎮韌性演習納入涵蓋 1700 萬人口的行動網路降速演練，測試通訊受阻時文職與民眾的備援網絡銜接能力。演習並動員現役部隊、2 萬名後備軍人以及近萬名中央與地方文職人員，進行軍民整合驗證。On exercise integration, the National Solidarity Month exercises held in August introduced a civilian mobile network throttling drill covering 17 million people as part of urban resilience testing, assessing civilian backup network handoffs during communication disruptions. The drills mobilized active-duty units, 20,000 reservists, and nearly 10,000 central and local civilian personnel to validate civil-military integration.
交通部航港局與海域關鍵設施防護Maritime and Port Bureau and Maritime Critical Infrastructure Protection
交通部航港局局長葉協隆指出，針對保護通訊關鍵設施海纜，海纜 7 法修法完成並於今年 1 月起正式施行。其中船舶法嚴格規範並懲處在領海內違規關閉、偽冒船舶自動識別系統（AIS）或隱匿船名的船舶，截至今年 8 月已累計裁處 16 件，其中 15 件為外籍船舶，總罰鍰金額達新台幣 853 萬元。Yeh Hsieh-lung, Director-General of the Maritime and Port Bureau under the Ministry of Transportation and Communications, noted that statutory revisions across seven undersea cable-related laws took effect in January to safeguard critical communications assets. Under the revised Law of Ships, vessels that disable or falsify Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) or conceal their vessel names within territorial waters face strict penalties. As of August, authorities have imposed 16 fines—15 involving foreign-flagged vessels—totaling NT$8.53 million.
針對港口運作韌性，全台共有 11 個商港被列入國家關鍵基礎設施，行政院已訂定安全防護指導綱領，將天災、資安、人為攻擊及軍事威脅納入評估，並規劃以「港群」概念實施相互替代備援機制，確保海運貨載在單一港口受損時仍能維持吞吐運作。Regarding port operational resilience, 11 commercial ports across Taiwan have been designated national critical infrastructure. The Executive Yuan has formulated security protection guidelines incorporating natural disasters, cyberattacks, human sabotage, and military threats. These guidelines employ a "port cluster" redundancy model, ensuring sea freight throughput can be redirected and sustained if a single port suffers disruption.
國家安全會議無人機產業布局National Security Council Drone Industry Strategy
國安會副秘書長林飛帆表示，台灣正積極打造 100%非紅供應鏈的無人機零組件體系。統計顯示台灣無人機出口在過去 1 年內成長達 55 倍，對外輸出的主要買家為波蘭與捷克，相關零組件正逐步切入國際防務體系。Deputy Secretary-General of the National Security Council Lin Fei-fan said Taiwan is actively building a 100% non-red supply chain for drone components. Official figures indicate Taiwanese drone exports grew 55-fold over the past year, with Poland and the Czech Republic as the primary buyers, gradually integrating domestic components into international defense supply ecosystems.
林飛帆說明，已有烏克蘭相關代表與台灣持續接觸，尋求降低對中國製零組件的依賴。透過建立不含中國零組件的生產鏈，台灣試圖將無人機能量轉化為具備國際替代性的戰略外銷產業，目前正擴大與中東歐國家的產業合作深度。Lin noted that Ukrainian representatives have maintained contact with Taiwan to reduce reliance on Chinese-made components. By establishing manufacturing lines free of Chinese parts, Taiwan aims to turn its drone capabilities into a strategically viable export industry for international substitution, and is deepening industrial cooperation with Central and Eastern European partners.
其他要聞Other News
總統賴清德指出今年健保總額編列已達 1 兆 82 億元，成長率連續 2 年採 5.5%高推估，要求醫界優先替醫療人員加薪並設定 2032 年平均餘命增 3 歲目標；行政院長卓榮泰表示都市更新條例及危老條例修正草案已送立院，捐贈婚育宅最高享 2 倍容積獎勵；民眾黨柯文哲針對竹北選舉藍白合作破局表示未簽訂政黨協議書易各說各話，未來輔選將以雙北以外為主。President Lai Ching-te said this year's National Health Insurance total budget reached NT$1.0082 trillion, with growth calculated at an upper-estimate 5.5% for two straight years, urging the medical sector to prioritize salary increases for healthcare workers while targeting a three-year increase in average life expectancy by 2032; Premier Cho Jung-tai stated that draft amendments to the Urban Renewal Act and the Statute for Expediting Reconstruction of Urban Unsafe and Old Buildings have been sent to the legislature, offering up to double floor-area incentives for donated family housing; Taiwan People's Party Chairman Ko Wen-je, addressing the collapsed electoral pact with the Kuomintang in Zhubei, noted that lacking a written inter-party agreement invited conflicting interpretations, adding his future campaign efforts will focus outside Taipei and New Taipei.
本刊觀點：The Journal's View: 明年度國防預算正式推升至 1 兆 1225 億元，全社會防衛體系已不再停留在法令修訂或演練構想，而是以實體預算推動民用關鍵設施防護。今天變了的是預算數字確立破兆，且海纜違規裁罰累積至 16 件、無人機出口出現 55 倍成長；沒變的是台灣整體能源進口依存結構與海運通道的脆弱性。
本刊認為，各方共識與物理數據間存在實質裂縫：防衛論壇聚焦於無人機零件與通訊網路備援，強調建立非紅供應鏈；但整體防衛能量的延續高度依賴液化天然氣等基載能源進口，航運具備集體避險的羊群效應，民用備援機制能否在外部干擾下即時抵補關鍵物資消耗，在實際物流能量上尚未經過極端情境的實證檢驗。
市場與相關產業先前多將防衛政策視為純軍工題材，但隨商港備援與通訊防護逐步落地，實質資源正擴散至海事監控、民用網通與特殊零組件領域。
With next year's defense budget formally set at NT$1.1225 trillion, Taiwan’s whole-of-society defense structure is moving past statutory revisions and exercise planning toward allocating tangible funds to secure critical civilian infrastructure.
What has changed is that the budget has definitively breached the NT$1 trillion mark, penalties for undersea cable infringements have accumulated to 16 cases, and drone exports have expanded 55-fold.What remains unchanged is Taiwan’s overall structural dependency on imported energy and the fundamental vulnerability of its maritime shipping corridors.
The Journal sees a material disconnect between administrative consensus and physical reality: while defense forums emphasize non-red supply chains for drone components and telecommunication network redundancy, sustained defense operations remain heavily reliant on imported baseload fuels like liquefied natural gas.
Maritime shipping inherently exhibits herding behavior around risk, and the operational capability of civilian backup networks to bridge vital supply consumption under external disruptions has yet to be tested against extreme scenarios.
Markets and adjacent industries previously treated defense policy purely as an aerospace-and-defense trade. However, as port redundancy and communications protection are implemented, substantive capital allocations are extending into maritime surveillance, civilian networking equipment, and specialized industrial components.
接下來看什麼：What to watch:
- 立法院預算會期審查：1 兆 1225 億元國防預算若於立法院三讀全數或絕大部分保留，代表防衛資本支出擴張成立；若遭到大幅刪減或凍結，則國防與備援採購時程將遞延Legislative Yuan budget review: Full or near-full passage of the NT$1.1225 trillion defense budget signals sustained expansion in defense capex; severe cuts or freezes would defer procurement timelines for defense and backup networks
- 無人機出口月度統計：若後續單月出口額維持雙位數年增，非紅供應鏈替代說法成立；若外銷增速驟降，則前期高倍數僅屬單一專案拉貨Monthly drone export figures: Double-digit year-on-year growth would support the non-red supply chain substitution thesis; a sharp deceleration would indicate past gains were driven by single-project batch shipments
圖表與數字以公開行情與營收面板另行計算，行情資料日 2026-09-18。Charts and figures are computed from public price and revenue panels; market data as of 2026-09-18.
