AHI Journal台積電 2026 年資本支出上看 640 億美元 A14 規劃 2028 年量產TSMC 2026 Capex Seen Reaching Up to $64 Billion, A14 Mass Production Slated for 2028
先進製程擴產腳步加快，2026 年底N2 月產能估達 140K片以上，機構預估今年EPS落在 105.16 至 108.58 元。Advanced process expansions accelerate, with N2 monthly capacity projected to top 140,000 wafers by year-end 2026; brokerages forecast this year's EPS at NT$105.16 to NT$108.58.
前情提要Previously本刊第 6 次談Our take #6 on 個股焦點：台積電
本篇重點：The key points:
- 2026 年資本支出估達 600 至 640 億美元，先進製程佔比達 70%至 80%2026 capex projected at $60 billion to $64 billion, with advanced processes accounting for 70% to 80%
- N2 月產能預計於 2026 年底達 140K片以上，N3 產能同步拉升至 180K片以上N2 monthly capacity expected to top 140,000 wafers by year-end 2026, while N3 capacity rises to over 180,000 wafers
- A14 節點預計 2027 年於新竹寶山試產、2028 年量產，初期月產能 50 至 55K片A14 node targeted for trial production at Hsinchu Baoshan in 2027 and mass production in 2028, with initial monthly capacity of 50,000 to 55,000 wafers
- 8 家機構預估 2026 年EPS落在 105.16 至 108.58 元，2027 年 7 家預估 135.22 至 142.76 元Eight brokerages project 2026 EPS at NT$105.16 to NT$108.58; seven estimate 2027 EPS at NT$135.22 to NT$142.76
外部研究機構推估台積電 2026 年資本支出拉升至 600 至 640 億美元，年增 46.72%至 56.50%，其中 70%至 80%用於先進製程。這項擴產步調直接牽動全球AI硬體供應鏈產能釋放節奏，並確立先進節點推進時程。External research institutions estimate Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (2330) will scale its 2026 capital expenditure up to between $60 billion and $64 billion, up 46.72% to 56.50% year on year, with 70% to 80% allocated to advanced nodes. This pace of expansion directly steers the capacity release cadence of the global AI hardware supply chain and cements the timeline for leading-edge node progression.
台積電（2330）：產能擴充與資本支出TSMC (2330): Capacity Expansion and Capital Spending
台積電因應AI伺服器與高效能運算需求，擴大先進製程產能佈局。外部機構最新預估，台積電 2026 年資本支出將達 600 億至 640 億美元，較前 1 年度成長 46.72%至 56.50%，其中 70%至 80%的資金將集中投入N3 與N2 等先進製程。TSMC is broadening its advanced manufacturing footprint to satisfy demand for AI servers and high-performance computing. Latest projections from external institutions indicate the company's 2026 capital expenditures will reach $60 billion to $64 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.72% to 56.50%, with 70% to 80% of the funds directed into advanced processes such as N3 and N2.
在產能規劃方面，N2 製程於 2025 年底量產後，2026 年營收貢獻將逐步放大，預估 2026 年底N2 月產能將由 2025 年第 4 季的 15 至 20K片提升至 140K片以上；N3 月產能則預計於 2026 年提升至 180K片以上，2027 年規劃再增加 40 至 50K片。下一代A14 製程預計 2027 年第 1 季在新竹寶山Fab 20 試產，台中Fab 25 最快 2027 年第 3 季投入試產，量產時程落在 2028 年，初期月產能規劃約 50 至 55K片/月。On the capacity roadmap, following the start of N2 volume production in late 2025, revenue contributions will progressively widen in 2026. Projections place N2 monthly capacity at more than 140,000 wafers by the end of 2026, up from 15,000 to 20,000 wafers in the fourth quarter of 2025. N3 monthly capacity is expected to scale beyond 180,000 wafers in 2026, with plans to add another 40,000 to 50,000 wafers in 2027. The next-generation A14 node is scheduled for pilot runs at Fab 20 in Hsinchu's Baoshan in the first quarter of 2027, with Taichung's Fab 25 entering trial production as early as the third quarter of 2027. Mass production is slated for 2028, with initial monthly capacity targeted at 50,000 to 55,000 wafers.
台積電（2330）：營收動能與機構預估TSMC (2330): Revenue Momentum and Institutional Forecasts
台積電 2026 年 8 月營收達 5148.05 億元，年增 53.3%；1 至 8 月累計營收達 3 兆 3868.7 億元，今年剩餘 4 個月（9 月、10 月、11 月、12 月）。TSMC generated NT$514.81 billion in revenue for August 2026, up 53.3% year on year. Cumulative revenue for the first eight months reached NT$3.39 trillion, leaving four months (September, October, November, and December) in the year.
營收結構以先進製程晶片為主，廣泛應用於蘋果供應鏈、AI伺服器與電源等領域；產品平均售價（ASP）走向呈現上漲趨勢，營收軌跡連續 6 個月維持在 4100 億元以上。個股四要素中的同業狀況，材料未揭露其他晶圓代工同業的營運數據。The sales mix is dominated by leading-edge silicon, widely used across the Apple supply chain, AI servers, and power management applications. ASP trajectories remain tilted upward, and monthly revenue has held above NT$410 billion for six consecutive months. Regarding peer conditions among the four core analytical factors, the source material does not disclose operating data for other foundry competitors.
獲利預估方面，8 家機構對台積電 2026 年EPS預估區間為 105.16 元至 108.58 元；7 家機構對 2027 年EPS預估區間為 135.22 元至 142.76 元。5 家機構對 2026 年營收年增率預估介於 30%至 40%之間。On the earnings front, eight brokerages estimate TSMC's 2026 EPS will fall between NT$105.16 and NT$108.58. Seven brokerages project 2027 EPS in the range of NT$135.22 to NT$142.76. Five brokerages forecast 2026 revenue growth between 30% and 40%.
台積電（2330）：先進封裝與產業合作TSMC (2330): Advanced Packaging and Industrial Partnerships
在封裝與客戶合作端，聯發科（2454）推出的旗艦處理器Dimensity CX C10 Max已採用台積電 3 奈米製程，鎖定高階筆電運算市場。此外，市場傳出台積電曾評估友達（2409）位於中科的L5C與L7A廠房以支應擴產需求，但雙方均未證實該項交易。In packaging and client collaborations, MediaTek (2454) adopted TSMC's 3-nanometer process for its flagship Dimensity CX C10 Max processor, targeting the premium notebook computing sector. Additionally, market reports indicated TSMC evaluated AUO's (2409) L5C and L7A facilities at the Central Taiwan Science Park to support expansion needs, though neither party has confirmed such a transaction.
在先進封裝領域，研調機構指出AI晶片封裝需求將延續至 2028 年，預估 2028 年先進封裝產能將成長約 50%，台積電正持續擴產因應由GPU延伸至ASIC與CPU的封裝需求。不過，產業研究顯示屆時CSP資本支出年增幅約為 12%，產能擴張速度是否超越資本支出成長將是供需平衡的觀察焦點。In advanced packaging, research houses anticipate demand for AI chip packaging will run through 2028, projecting total advanced packaging capacity will expand by roughly 50% that year. TSMC continues to scale up to accommodate packaging needs expanding from GPUs into ASICs and CPUs. However, industry research indicates CSP capital expenditure growth will narrow to around 12% annually by then, making whether capacity outpaces capex expansion a critical focal point for supply-demand equilibrium.
本刊觀點：The Journal's View: 本刊認為，先進製程產能推進已成為半導體資本循環的核心樞紐。市場共識對台積電 2026 年美元營收成長率給予 30%至 40%的預期（5 家機構預估），且ASP走向持續看漲；然而，這項擴張路徑與下游需求增速之間出現了顯著裂縫。
機構數據顯示 2028 年先進封裝總產能預估將成長約 50%，同期間雲端服務供應商（CSP）資本支出增幅卻收斂至約 12%。若終端推論應用的變現速度未跟上硬體佈建，2026 至 2028 年間台積電高達 600 億美元以上的年資本支出，將在折舊攤提及產能稼動率上承受檢驗。
目前市場已充分反應AI加速器產能吃緊的紅利，但先進製程產能快速開出後，CSP資本支出放緩的滯後影響尚未被全面定價。
Advanced-node capacity expansion has become the central fulcrum of the semiconductor capital cycle, in the Journal's view.Market consensus models TSMC's 2026 US dollar revenue growth at 30% to 40% (based on five institutions), with average selling prices (ASPs) seen trending steadily upward.
Yet a noticeable fracture has emerged between this expansion trajectory and downstream demand growth.Institutional data shows total advanced packaging capacity is projected to expand roughly 50% through 2028, whereas cloud service provider (CSP) capex growth during the same period is moderating to around 12%.
If monetization across end-market inference applications fails to keep pace with hardware deployment, TSMC's annual capital spending—exceeding $60 billion between 2026 and 2028—will face scrutiny over depreciation amortization and fab utilization rates.
The market has already fully priced in the premium from tight AI accelerator capacity, but the lagged impact of decelerating CSP capex once advanced capacity arrives in force has yet to be comprehensively factored in.
接下來看什麼：What to watch:
- 10 月中旬法說會公布的第 4 季營收指引與毛利率目標：若單季毛利率維持高檔，代表先進製程漲價與產能利用率支撐性確立；若毛利率低於預期，則反映折舊成本侵蝕。Fourth-quarter revenue guidance and gross margin targets at the mid-October investor conference: a resilient, high gross margin would confirm pricing leverage and utilization support for advanced nodes; a lower-than-expected margin would signal depreciation headwinds.
- 10 月 10 日前公布的 9 月營收：若月營收維持在 5000 億元以上水準，驗證下半年旺季拉貨力道；若回落至 4600 億元以下，則顯示短線拉貨動能放緩。September revenue due by October 10: maintaining monthly revenue above NT$500 billion would validate peak-season pull-in momentum in the second half; a retreat below NT$460 billion would indicate slowing near-term procurement.
圖表與數字以公開行情與營收面板另行計算，行情資料日 2026-09-22。Charts and figures are computed from public price and revenue panels; market data as of 2026-09-22.
