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2026 年 9 月 18 日 星期五Friday, September 18, 2026登入Log In訂閱Subscribe
供應鏈深探SUPPLY CHAIN DEEP DIVE

宏致接單能見度直達 2027 年 電源線與高頻連接器放量Aces Order Visibility Stretches to 2027 on Surging Power Cables, High-Frequency Connectors

AI伺服器與Bloom Energy高壓電源線出貨倍增,產品組合優化有效抵禦原物料成本上漲衝擊。Doubling shipments of AI server harnesses and high-voltage power cables for Bloom Energy, alongside richer mix, cushioned the connector maker against rising raw material costs.

server(伺服器機房實景)
圖:Photo: Esquilo 授權:License: CC BY-SA 3.0 來源:Source: Wikimedia Commons
2026 年 9 月 18 日 星期五Friday, September 18, 2026科技Technology電源與功率元件Power & Discretes免費版Free Edition
下一個可驗證時點Next checkpoint10/10(六)3605 宏致 9 月營收(10 日前申報)
到時候看What to check9 月營收年增率是否高於前 3 個月平均(前 3 個月平均年增 +25.0%);月增率有沒有延續,累計年增率的方向。

台灣連接器廠宏致在最新法人說明會釋出關鍵訊號,受惠美國客戶擴充固態氧化物燃料電池產線,高壓電源線訂單能見度已直接排至 2027 年 8 月。這項非傳統個人電腦業務的爆發,象徵宏致正式跨入高階能源設備與人工智慧基礎設施供應鏈。過去市場對宏致的定位多停留在消費性電子零組件供應商,利潤易受原物料波動侵蝕;然而隨著資料中心供電架構翻新與伺服器高速傳輸需求激增,公司的營收骨架正經歷徹底置換。這場產品結構的質變,不僅為未來數年的營運成長鋪設穩固軌道,也成為評估台股電子零組件轉型升級的代表性案例。Aces Electronics (3605), a Taiwanese connector maker, delivered a critical update at its latest institutional investor conference: fueled by an American customer's capacity ramp-up for solid oxide fuel cells, order visibility for its high-voltage power cables now extends through August 2027. This explosive growth outside traditional PC lines marks Aces' definitive entry into high-end energy equipment and AI infrastructure supply chains. Historically viewed by the market as a commoditized consumer-electronics supplier whose margins were exposed to raw-material swings, the company is undergoing an overhaul of its revenue foundation amid an architectural revolution in data center power distribution and soaring demand for high-speed server interconnects. This transformation establishes a multi-year growth runway and serves as a prime case study in the higher-value transition of Taiwan's electronic component makers.

雙引擎驅動營收骨架徹底翻新Twin Growth Engines Reshape Core Revenue Streams

宏致營運重心的轉移直接體現在營收比重的跳躍式增長上。第 2 季人工智慧相關產品營收已達到 6.7 億元,占整體營收 2 成,內部預估 2026 年人工智慧營收將呈現 2 倍速增長,至 2027 年營收占比將進一步推升至 30%至 38%的水準。與此同時,來自能源客戶的訂單擴張同樣劇烈,該領域在 2027 年的營收展望已由原先預估的 15 億元大幅翻倍上調至 30 億元,單一客戶占比即達 18%。這 2 項高成長業務的快速拉升,意味著宏致成功擺脫消費性電子產品週期循環的泥淖,在資料中心高壓電力供應與高頻訊號傳輸 2 大剛性需求領域,建立起具備長期能見度的營收基本盤。The strategic pivot at Aces is clearly visible in the rapid shift of its revenue mix. Second-quarter AI-related sales reached NT$670 million, contributing 20% of total revenue. Management projects AI revenue will double in 2026, lifting its share of overall sales to between 30% and 38% by 2027. Simultaneously, orders from its primary energy client are expanding at an equally rapid clip: the 2027 revenue forecast for this customer was doubled to NT$3.0 billion from an initial estimate of NT$1.5 billion, representing 18% of projected company turnover on its own. The rapid scaling of these twin high-growth lines frees Aces from the cyclical volatility of consumer electronics, securing an order book with extended visibility across high-voltage power systems and high-speed signal transmission.

規格升級與放量抵禦原料漲價Spec Upgrades and Scaling Blunt Raw-Material Costs

產品規格的升級直接轉化為優異的單價表現與獲利防禦力。宏致供應的人工智慧高速連接器單價約達 2 美元,高附加價值產品的放量出貨,有效抵消了近期銅等上游原物料價格上漲所帶來的毛利壓力。出貨規模方面,連接器出貨量自上半年的 1,200 萬顆,大幅躍升至下半年的 2,100 萬顆展望,預計年底月產能將擴增至 500 萬顆,2027 年全年出貨量更上看 5,000 萬顆以上。隨著產能利用率攀升與高單價產品比重擴大,毛利率預期將在 2027 年擴張至 28.4%以上,推動市場對其獲利預期出現倍數級的調整,展現出高度的營運槓桿效應。Upgrades in component specifications have translated directly into higher average selling prices and superior margin resilience. The AI-tailored high-speed connectors supplied by Aces command unit prices of roughly $2.00, and scaling these high-value shipments has helped shield gross margins from recent spikes in upstream raw materials such as copper. On the volume front, unit shipments of connectors are poised to jump from 12 million units in the first half of the year to a projected 21 million units in the second half. Monthly production capacity is slated to reach 5 million units by year-end, with annual shipments projected to surpass 50 million units in 2027. As capacity utilization climbs and high-margin products expand their share of the mix, the company's gross margin is expected to widen past 28.4% by 2027, unlocking significant operational leverage and driving a steep upward revision in earnings expectations.

避開內部紅海切入外部供電架構Sidestepping the Red Ocean via External Power Architecture

在競爭格局方面,宏致選擇了一條與傳統連接器廠商不同的差異化路徑。相較於貿聯-KY在高算力伺服器互連領域所擁有的龐大規模優勢,以及瀚荃長期聚焦於伺服器主機板內部連接器的競爭態勢,宏致轉而鎖定資料中心外部供電設施與燃料電池專用線束。這種策略成功避開了伺服器內部零組件激烈的價格競爭,同時精準掌握了新世代資料中心對高壓能源轉換與連續供電穩定性的嚴苛標準。透過深度綁定指標性能源設備大廠,宏致在高規格特殊線束市場構築起技術與認證壁壘,進而在競爭激烈的供應鏈版圖中確立獨特的市場份額。In terms of competitive strategy, Aces has pursued a differentiated path from conventional connector peers. While BizLink Holding enjoys dominant scale in high-performance compute server interconnects, and Tarng Yu Enterprise maintains a long-standing presence in internal server-motherboard connectivity, Aces has carved out a niche in external data center power facilities and dedicated harnesses for fuel cells. This focus neatly avoids the cutthroat price competition that characterizes internal server components while addressing the exacting reliability standards required by next-generation data centers for high-voltage power conversion and continuous uptime. By aligning closely with top-tier energy equipment providers, Aces has erected high technical and certification barriers in specialized, high-spec cabling, securing a distinct footprint across the supply chain landscape.

本刊判斷,宏致的投資邏輯已由傳統零組件的景氣循環轉向高階能源與高速傳輸的結構成長。接下來的關鍵在於第 4 季高階線束與連接器的實際量產交付節奏,以及毛利率是否能在原料波動下維持高檔水準。若產能爬坡與高單價產品出貨順暢,獲利重估趨勢將確立;反之,若上游關鍵材料出現短缺干擾交期,營運爆發期將面臨遞延風險。The investment thesis for Aces Electronics has shifted from a cyclical consumer-component play to a structural compounder levered to advanced energy and high-speed connectivity. The near-term milestones to track are the execution of commercial deliveries for advanced harnesses and connectors in the fourth quarter, and the company's ability to maintain high gross margins amid raw material fluctuations. If capacity additions and high-ASP shipments ramp without friction, an upward valuation re-rating will take hold; conversely, any upstream material bottlenecks that compromise delivery schedules would risk deferring the company's anticipated operational inflection point.

全文拆解各大產品線產能擴充路徑、同業估值比較表與單月營收毛利低標檢查點。The full report maps out capacity expansion schedules across major product lines, a peer valuation matrix, and monthly revenue and gross margin checklist floors.

閱讀訂閱版Read the subscriber edition

本刊結論:Our verdict: 立場:偏多產品組合向AI傳輸與能源線束轉型之指引;信心:高,因高壓電源線排單已排至 2027 年 8 月且出貨能見度明確;否證:第 4 季單月營收跌破 11 億元。

接下來看什麼What to watch next

  1. 第 4 季單月營收:門檻為 14 億元,若單月營收達到或超過 14 億元則為成立,若跌破 11 億元則為不成立。
  2. 第 4 季自結毛利率:門檻為 26%,若自結毛利率維持在 26%以上則為成立,低於 26%則為不成立。
  3. 下半年連接器出貨量:門檻為 2,100 萬顆,若下半年出貨量達到 2,100 萬顆則為成立,未達 2,100 萬顆則為不成立。

風險燈號Risk Dashboard

總經軸Macro Axis
聯準會重啟升息 1 碼且點陣圖偏鷹,10 年期美債殖利率高檔震盪考驗資產估值。A 25-basis-point Fed rate hike and hawkish dot plot leave the 10-year Treasury yield elevated, pressuring asset multiples.
流動性軸Liquidity Axis
外資台指期淨空單逼近 7.9 萬口極端空區,且融資餘額逼近 5,900 億元水位。Foreign index short positions hover near an extreme 79,000 contracts as domestic margin debt nears NT$590.0 billion.
產業敘事軸Industry Thesis Axis
台灣出口創單月新高,AI伺服器、ABF載板與光通訊訂單能見度普遍延伸至 2027 年。Taiwan exports hit record monthly highs, with order visibility across AI servers, ABF substrates, and optical components extending into 2027.
時間性軸Temporal Axis
時值 9 月下旬季節性波動窗口,面臨美股四巫日結算及季底法人調倉壓力。Late-September seasonal volatility approaches, driven by U.S. quadruple witching and quarter-end institutional rebalancing.

要聞速覽What’s News看完整內容 →full story →

市場Markets

三大法人買超 214 億元Institutions Net Buy NT$21.4B集中市場單日成交量擴至 8,194 億元,外資買超 121 億元轉向回補權值股,終止連續調節賣壓。Main-board volume expanded to NT$819.4 billion as foreign in…

外資台指期淨空單續增Foreign Index Shorts Rise期貨空單增至 78,674 口高位,顯示機構法人對大盤挑戰 47,000 點以上整數壓力區仍維持高規格對沖。Foreign net short positions in Taiex futures climbed to 78,6…

美債殖利率回落至 4.93%Treasury Yield Eases to 4.93%10 年期美債殖利率自高點下滑 9 個基點,舒緩科技股評價壓力,帶動費半指數勁揚 3.14%。The 10-year U.S.

產業與企業Industry & Companies

宏致接單能見度直達明年Aces Visibility Stretches獲能源巨頭擴產挹注,高壓電源線與AI高速連接器雙引擎放量,2027 年相關營收上看 64 億元。Backed by clean-energy customer expansions, dual growth in h…

東和鋼鐵高毛利廠辦比重升Tung Ho Mix Improves在手鋼筋訂單維持 115 萬噸,AI科技廠房與型鋼訂單能見度達 2028 上半年,產品組合持續優化。With rebar backlogs stable at 1.15 million metric tons, orde…

本期其他文章More From This Issue

回本期目錄 →Back to issue index →
產業異動INDUSTRY FRACTURE

CPO降規傳言引發CCL族群重挫 業者駁斥高階用料不減反增CPO Speculation Hits CCL Stocks; Suppliers Counter High-End Demand Keeps Expanding

市場盛傳共封裝光學將導致銅箔基板降規並引發賣壓,但供應鏈直指高階材料產能持續供不應求。這場烏龍推論忽視了資料中心架構的規模擴張,扭曲了高階硬體材料的真實需求。Rumors that co-packaged optics would prompt specification downgrades in copper-clad laminates triggered a sharp selloff, yet suppliers report ongoing shortages of premium materials. The knee-jerk reaction ignored data center architectural scaling, misreading underlying hardware demand.

2026-09-18總經與市場Markets光通訊與 CPOOptical & CPO
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央行定調CENTRAL BANK POLICY

央行上修全年成長至 11.48% 利率連凍暗藏緊縮戒心Taiwan Central Bank Lifts Full-Year GDP Forecast to 11.48%, Holds Rates Amid Persistent Tightening Bias

內外需雙強推升GDP預期,但M2 高於參考區間與輸入性通膨隱憂,使貨幣政策維持偏緊底色。Robust domestic and export demand lifted growth expectations, but above-target M2 expansion and imported inflation risks kept monetary policy firmly leaned toward hawkish restraint.

2026-09-18總經與市場Markets總經與利率Macro & Rates
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評等重構RATING RESHUFFLE

機構上修傳統與半導體標的 欣興與東和鋼鐵獲買盤進駐Institutions Upgrade Legacy, Semiconductor Plays; Unimicron and Tung Ho Steel Draw Bids

市場資金轉向評價修復與供不應求產業,載板與科技廠房鋼構獲機構法人調升評等。Institutional capital shifted toward valuation-repair names and structurally tight niches, driving upgrades across IC substrate suppliers and tech-facility steelmakers.

2026-09-18評等RatingsPCB 與載板PCB & Substrates
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跨境傳導CROSS-BORDER TRANSMISSION

日圓貶至 156 區間誘發資金流向 航運與半導體設備聯動台股Yen Weakens Past 156, Reshuffling Capital Flows to Shipping and Chip Equipment

日本 8 月進口激增推升貿易逆差,航運商逆勢受惠油價與繞道,日股結構分化牽動台廠供應鏈。Japan's August import surge widened its trade deficit, while shippers capitalized on oil swings and detour rerouting, creating cross-market ripples for Taiwan's supply chain.

2026-09-18海外Global半導體Semiconductors
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期限風險DURATION RISK

10 年期美債殖利率測試 5%門檻 高利率環境延長的壓力測試10-Year Treasury Yield Tests 5% Threshold in Stress Test for Extended High Rates

聯準會點陣圖暗示年內仍有升息空間,資產評價對長端利率的敏感度已進入臨界區間。The Federal Reserve's dot plot pointed to further tightening scope this year, pushing equity valuation sensitivity to long-term yields into a critical zone.

2026-09-18風險Risk總經與利率Macro & Rates
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本刊觀點Editor's View

在強韌基本面與極端避險的裂縫中尋找定價失真Anchoring the Earnings Floor Between Resilient Data and Higher Rates

市場態:立場:謹慎看待本益比擴張;信心:中等偏高;否證:長端利率實質反轉下行或供應鏈資本支出指引全面下修Market State: Stance: Moderately bullish on semiconductor and infrastructure leaders with order visibility into 2027 and expanding gross margins. Confidence: Medium, as robust Taiwan exports are tempered by foreign institutional net short futures of nearly 79,000 contracts capping upside. Invalidation: Consecutive closes below the 20-day moving average or the 10-year Treasury yield breaking cleanly above 5.20% will trigger immediate defensive hedging.

2026-09-18本刊觀點Editor's View總經與利率Macro & Rates
閱讀 →Read →