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籌碼快訊 · 資料日 2026-09-18Chip Flow · as of 2026-09-18

贏家分點怎麼算、怎麼讀How it is computed and how to read it

大額買進日、勝率、贏家分點與估計成本的定義，以及讀這些數字要注意的地方。Definitions of a big buy, the hit rate, a winning branch and estimated cost, and the caveats.

2026-09-18每日更新Daily
籌碼快訊選單Chip Flow menu怎麼讀How to read

籌碼快訊每一個數字怎麼算、讀的時候要注意什麼，都整理在這一頁。

How every number in Chip Flow is computed, and what to keep in mind when reading it.

怎麼算的

  • 資料：交易所每日公布的券商分點進出與收盤價；最新資料日 2026-09-18，每個交易日盤後更新。
  • 範圍：2025-09-23 起 240 個交易日；只看前 20 個交易日平均成交值 2,000 萬元以上的普通股（830 檔）。
  • 其中 8 個交易日（2026-09-16、2026-09-17、2026-09-18…）以逐檔查詢補齊，只涵蓋當時 20 日均額 1,000 萬元以上的股票。
  • 大額買進日：某分點當天淨買超達當日成交量 0.5% 以上、且至少 30 張，而且當天沒有同時大量賣出（買賣互抵不到一半）。
  • 勝率：大額買進日收盤買進、到第 20 個交易日收盤為上漲的比例；期間遇到除權、減資、分割等單日漲跌超過 10.5% 的情況，那一筆不計。
  • 贏家分點：在同一檔股票上大額買進至少 6 次，勝率至少 6 成、而且比同一段期間「任何一天買進這檔」的上漲比例高出 10 個百分點以上，平均 20 日漲幅也多 1.5 個百分點以上；當沖型與隔日沖型的分點排除。每檔最多列 10 家。
  • 分點檔案：在 3 檔以上股票名列贏家的分點（本期 413 家）各有一頁，列出它名列贏家的股票、當天在全部股票的買賣、近 20 個交易日的動向、最近的大額買進與逐月紀錄。
  • 成本：用這段期間的買賣紀錄以移動平均法估算；期間內賣多於買的分點，真實成本在資料之外，不列成本。
  • 優先順序：今日贏家分點買超的股票，五項各自在當天的清單裡換成 0 到 100 的排名分數再加權——買盤力道 30%（淨買金額與佔成交量各半）、贏家家數 20%、贏家紀錄 25%（買超的贏家分點勝率高出同檔任一日的幅度，次數少的打折）、連續買超 15%（最長連續天數，上限 5 日）、成本位置 10%（股價距贏家平均成本越近越高）。贏家合計淨買 500 萬元以上才排名次。這是閱讀順序，不是買進建議，也不代表之後的漲跌。
  • 行為統計：當沖互抵率＝分點當天買賣互相抵銷的比例（兩邊較小者合計除以較大者合計）；隔日沖率＝單日淨買 30 張以上之後，隔一個交易日賣回該筆一半以上的比例。贏家分點排除前者超過 50%、後者超過 40% 的分點。
  • 代號變更：券商合併後，分點會改用新代號。指定追蹤的分點若改過代號，新舊兩段紀錄合併計算；其他分點的新舊代號分開計算，合併前後的紀錄不相連。
  • 訂閱版另有：指定追蹤分點的專頁，以及可依名稱或代號查任何一家券商分點的站內搜尋。
  • 換算：收盤價與分點資料都沒有還原除權、減資與分割。期間內單日漲跌超過 10.5% 的日子（本期 80 檔）視為這類事件，事件之前的張數與價格換算成今日口徑，成本、留倉與走勢圖都是換算後的數字。漲跌沒超過這個幅度的除息不換算：除息前買進的成本沒有扣掉股利，股價距成本會少算大約一個殖利率。

讀法提醒

  • 贏家是依過去買點之後的表現排出來的，過去買對不代表之後會對；單一分點在單一檔的次數通常只有個位數到十幾次，運氣占的比重不小。
  • 同一家分點放到它大額買進過的全部股票上看，勝率通常平凡得多；分點檔案把「名列贏家的股票」和「其餘股票」分開列，就是為了看清楚這一點。
  • 一個分點代表的是在那家券商分公司下單的所有客戶，不是單一投資人。
  • 這段期間所有大額買進日的勝率為 54%，同一批股票任何一天買進為 53%。
  • 本頁為公開資料整理，非投資建議；作者非持牌投資顧問。

How it is computed

  • Data: the exchange's daily broker-branch trading records and closing prices; latest date 2026-09-18, refreshed after every trading day.
  • Scope: 240 trading days from 2025-09-23; ordinary shares with at least NT$20 million of average daily turnover over the prior 20 days (830 stocks).
  • Big buy: a branch's net buying on the day is at least 0.5% of the day's volume and at least 30 lots, with little offsetting selling the same day.
  • Hit rate: the share of big buys where the price 20 trading days later closed higher; windows containing a move of more than 10.5% in a day (ex-rights, capital reductions, splits) are dropped.
  • Winning branch: at least 6 big buys in the same stock, a hit rate of at least 60% and at least 10 points above buying that stock on any day in the same period, plus an average 20-day gain at least 1.5 points higher; day-trading and next-day-flip branches are excluded. Up to 10 per stock.
  • Branch profiles: every branch that ranks as a winner in 3 or more stocks (413 this period) has its own page with those stocks, its trades across all stocks on the day, the last 20 sessions, recent big buys and a month-by-month record.
  • Cost: moving-average cost from the period's trades; branches that sold more than they bought are left blank because their real cost predates the data.
  • Priority order: each of five measures is turned into a 0–100 rank score within the day's list of stocks with winners' net buying, then weighted — intensity 30% (net value and share of volume, half each), breadth 20%, the buying winners' record 25% (hit rate above any-day buying, discounted for few buys), streak 15% (longest run, capped at 5 days) and distance from the winners' cost 10% (closer scores higher). Only stocks with NT$5 million or more of winners' net buying are ranked. It is a reading order, not a recommendation, and says nothing about what happens next.
  • Behaviour: the same-day offset ratio is the share of a branch's buying and selling that cancels out within a day (sum of the smaller side over the larger); the next-day flip rate is how often, after a net buy of 30 lots or more, it sold at least half back the next session. Winners exclude branches above 50% and 40%.
  • Code changes: after a broker merger a branch trades under a new code. For tracked branches the records under both codes are combined; other branches are counted separately under each code, so their records break at the merger.
  • Subscribers also get: a page for the tracked branches and site search for any broker branch by name or code.
  • Restatement: prices and branch records are not adjusted for ex-rights, capital reductions or splits. Days with a move of more than 10.5% (80 stocks this period) are treated as such events, and earlier lots and prices are restated in today's units, so costs, positions and charts are restated figures. Smaller ex-dividend drops are not restated: a cost paid before the ex-date still includes the dividend, so the price-vs-cost gap is understated by roughly one dividend yield.

Read with care

  • Winners are ranked on what happened after past buys; that does not mean the next buy will work. Sample sizes are usually in the single digits or teens, so luck matters.
  • Across every stock a branch made big buys in, its hit rate is usually far more ordinary; the branch profiles show the stocks where it ranks as a winner and all other stocks separately for that reason.
  • A branch aggregates every client trading through that broker office, not one investor.
  • Across all big buys in the period the hit rate was 54%; buying the same stocks on any day gave 53%.
  • A compilation of public data, not investment advice.

本頁為交易所公開資料的整理，非投資建議；作者非持牌投資顧問。

A compilation of public exchange data, not investment advice.

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