AHI Journal英特爾稱AI代工市占 95%過度集中，台積電 2 奈米獲聯發科新旗艦採用Intel Challenges 95% AI Foundry Concentration as MediaTek Adopts TSMC 2nm for New Flagship
英特爾執行長喊話分散AI晶片代工訂單，聯發科天璣 9600 Pro導入台積電 2 奈米製程，Meta首批自研加速器交付實測。Intel's CEO urges diversification of AI foundry allocations, MediaTek deploys TSMC's 2nm for the Dimensity 9600 Pro, and Meta delivers first proprietary accelerators for testing.
前情提要Previously本刊第 4 次談Our take #4 on 個股焦點：台積電
本篇重點：The key points:
- 英特爾執行長稱AI晶片高達 95%押注台積電，呼籲訂單分散，其 18A良率傳達 80%Intel CEO calls out the 95% industry concentration on TSMC for AI chips and urges order splitting; 18A yields reportedly hit 80%
- 聯發科發表天璣 9600 Pro採用台積電 2 奈米製程，封裝維持InFO未跟進WMCMMediaTek unveils Dimensity 9600 Pro on TSMC's 2nm, retaining InFO packaging instead of WMCM
- Meta委託代工之MTIA自研AI晶片已交付 12 顆樣品，承諾 12 個月內部署達 1GWMeta delivers 12 silicon samples of its TSMC-made proprietary MTIA chips, commits to 1GW deployment within 12 months
- 8 家研究機構預估台積電 2026 年EPS介於 105.16 至 113.94 元，2027 年 7 家預估 135.22 至 155.09 元Eight brokers project TSMC's 2026 EPS at NT$105.16 to NT$113.94; seven see 2027 EPS at NT$135.22 to NT$155.09
英特爾執行長陳立武於 9 月 17 日公開呼籲產業界打破台積電在AI晶片代工達 95%的壟斷，同日英特爾傳出 18A製程良率達 80%以上。這項競爭指控直接對應先進製程版圖變化，同日聯發科確認首款 2 奈米天璣 9600 Pro預計最快 10 月問世，顯示先進節點客戶拉力與競爭威脅同時推進。Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan publicly urged the industry on September 17 to break TSMC's 95% monopoly on AI chip foundry manufacturing, even as reports emerged the same day that Intel's 18A process yields have crossed 80%. This competitive challenge coincides with shifting ground in advanced nodes: MediaTek confirmed its first 2nm chip, the Dimensity 9600 Pro, will debut as early as October, highlighting parallel tracks of advanced node customer pull and emerging competitive threats.
台積電（2330）：競爭格局與同業動態TSMC (2330): Competitive Dynamics and Industry Moves
英特爾執行長陳立武於丹佛.conf26 大會指出，全球AI晶片高達 95%押注於單一台灣製造商。他強調產業界必須打破台積電對晶圓代工的獨占現狀，主張客戶應將訂單分散至多家供應商。同日市場傳出英特爾 18A製程首款Panther Lake處理器良率已達 80%以上。這款處理器架構導入RibbonFET全環繞閘極技術，晶片也採用PowerVia背面供電技術，目標直接對標台積電N2 製程。從個股四要素檢視，台積電業務主要集中於半導體製造與先進封裝 2 大核心。公司各項產品報價（ASP）走勢維持上漲趨勢。其營收軌跡從 2026 年 3 月的 4,151.92 億元持續增長，8 月營收進一步推升至 5,148.05 億元，單月年增率高達 53.3%。晶圓代工市場的主要競爭對手包括英特爾、三星及聯電（2303），成熟製程同業則有力積電（6770）。法人機構預估台積電 2026 年營收年增率將介於 30%至 40%（4 家）。8 家機構預估台積電 2026 年EPS為 105.16 至 113.94 元，7 家機構預估 2027 年EPS為 135.22 至 155.09 元。
台積電（2330）：客戶拓展與產品導入TSMC (2330): Customer Expansion and Product Adoption
聯發科於 9 月 15 日發表天璣 9600 Pro旗艦晶片，這款新晶片採用台積電 2 奈米製程投片。內部架構整合了 300 億個電晶體，晶片設計同時支援LPDDR6 記憶體規格。搭載該晶片的終端裝置預計最快將於 10 月上市。該晶片在封裝選擇上並未採用台積電新一代WMCM封裝，而是維持既有InFO平台。這項封裝決策顯示非蘋陣營在導入先進節點時，對整體模組成本採取審慎策略。雲端服務客戶Meta把自研第 3 代MTIA 450 晶片委由台積電代工。供應鏈已於 9 月初交付 12 顆樣品進行測試，實際效能與模擬數據的誤差僅 2%至 3%。Meta預計未來 12 個月內部署總耗電量達 1GW的自研AI晶片，這項建置計畫將持續推升台積電先進製程的投片量。
台積電（2330）：地緣法規與聚落擴展TSMC (2330): Geopolitical Regulations and Cluster Expansion
國科會與德國聯邦研究、科技及太空部於 9 月 15 日至 17 日舉行研討會。台德半導體成果交流研討會選在慕尼黑登場，雙方持續推進台積電歐洲布局的產官學合作。台積電南科先進製程聚落帶動周邊發展，台南善化區自 2017 年至 2026 年間家戶數增加 41%，成長幅度居台南各行政區之冠。桃園亞矽創研中心招商案進度持續推進，該案預計於 2027 年 1 月截止投標，主辦單位預估於同年首季完成簽約。美墨供應鏈監管正在升級，根據@WSJ於 9 月 15 日報導，美國正施壓墨西哥接受AI硬體出口新規，全力防範各類規避關稅行為。主管機關對先進運算晶片於北美供應鏈的物流與組裝規範，正面臨持續收緊的趨勢。
本刊觀點：The Journal's View: 本刊認為，市場當前對台積電先進製程壟斷力的定價，正遭遇同業追趕與客戶成本控管的雙向檢驗。今天變的是英特爾將晶圓代工競爭端上檯面，宣稱 18A良率達 80%並直指台積電掌控 95% AI晶片供應；沒變的是台積電 8 月營收達 5,148.05 億元、年增 53.3%的實際出貨強度。
裂縫出現在 2 奈米世代的商業普及速度：蘋果A20 Pro率先導入台積電WMCM先進封裝，但聯發科天璣 9600 Pro雖採用 2 奈米，卻未跟進WMCM以控管成本。
此外，外部研究機構對台積電 2026 年EPS預估落在 105.16 至 113.94 元（8 家），2027 年則擴大為 135.22 至 155.09 元（7 家），最大落差達 14.7%，顯示市場對 2027 年產能利用率與毛利架構仍有歧見。先進封裝成本攀升是否會延緩非蘋陣營的升級節奏，是目前未被數字完全證實的變數。
The Journal believes the market's pricing of TSMC's monopoly power in advanced nodes is facing a dual test from peer pursuit and customer cost containment.
What changed today is Intel bringing foundry rivalry into the open, asserting 18A yields above 80% and pointing to TSMC's 95% grip on AI chips; what remained unchanged was the operational strength of TSMC's August revenue, which rose 53.3% year on year to NT$514.81 billion.
The fracture surfaces in the pace of commercial adoption across the 2nm generation: while Apple's A20 Pro leads the shift to TSMC's advanced WMCM packaging, MediaTek's Dimensity 9600 Pro, though on 2nm, bypassed WMCM to manage costs.
In addition, external broker EPS estimates for TSMC span NT$105.16 to NT$113.94 for 2026 (eight firms), widening to NT$135.22 to NT$155.09 for 2027 (seven firms)—a peak divergence of 14.7% that underscores market debate over 2027 capacity utilization and margin profiles.
Whether rising advanced packaging costs will slow node migration across the non-Apple camp remains a key variable not yet fully evidenced in reported numbers.
接下來看什麼：What to watch:
- 10 月聯發科天璣 9600 Pro終端裝置上市銷量：若首波拉貨順暢，確認非蘋高階對 2 奈米成本接受度；若出貨遞延，顯示定價阻力成立October launch volumes for MediaTek Dimensity 9600 Pro devices: Strong initial pull will confirm non-Apple flagship tolerance for 2nm costs; delayed shipments will point to pricing friction
- 10 月中旬法說會公布第 4 季毛利率展望：若維持在 67.7%區間上方，代表先進製程議價力未受同業良率傳聞影響；若落於區間下緣，反映成本折舊負擔Mid-October investor conference 4Q gross margin guidance: Sustaining above 67.7% will demonstrate pricing power unaffected by peer yield headlines; hitting the lower bound will reflect depreciation burdens
圖表與數字以公開行情與營收面板另行計算，行情資料日 2026-09-17。Charts and figures are computed from public price and revenue panels; market data as of 2026-09-17.
