歐洲鹿特丹仲鎢酸銨報價站穩每噸度 2,800 至 3,200 美元，與中國境內價格呈現脫鉤態勢。這項戰略金屬價格異動的背後，源於AI伺服器PCB多層板鑽孔需求爆發，引發碳化鎢鑽針耗用量急遽攀升。與此同時，地緣政治引發的出口管制與各國戰略儲備競賽，直接撞上非中國提煉轉化產能不足的結構性瓶頸。在終端軍工與高階半導體供應鏈爭相尋求去中化解方之際，成熟的回收料提煉體系迅速填補邊際缺口，使全球鎢產業由過往單純的原礦採掘邏輯，轉向由合規提煉產能主導的重估行情。European ammonium paratungstate (APT) spot quotes in Rotterdam have held firm between $2,800 and $3,200 per metric ton unit, decoupling from domestic pricing in China. The unusual rally in this strategic metal stems from an explosion in multi-layer PCB drilling for AI servers, which has triggered a sharp surge in the consumption of tungsten carbide micro-drills. Concurrently, geopolitical export controls and sovereign stockpile races are colliding head-on with a structural shortage of non-Chinese refining and conversion capacity. As Western defense contractors and advanced semiconductor supply chains aggressively de-risk from Chinese inputs, mature scrap-recycling and refining systems have stepped in to fill the marginal deficit—shifting the global tungsten trade from a simple mining play into a valuation re-rating anchored by compliant processing capacity.

戰略斷鏈與AI伺服器鑽孔拉動缺口Strategic Decoupling and AI Server Drilling Drive Deficit

高階硬質合金的需求激增，構成當前供需緊繃的底層動能。以終端結構觀察，2026 年中國鎢總需求量預估達 8.68 萬噸，其中硬質合金需求即佔 5.1 萬噸，比重高達 59%，而整體供給預估僅約 8.51 萬噸，缺口顯著擴大。更關鍵的變數在於AI伺服器高多層板製造過程，碳化鎢鑽針呈現高耗損特性，拉動產業對精煉鎢的迫切需求。在歐美加速構建非中國供應鏈的政策導向下，國際仲鎢酸銨供需持續吃緊，鹿特丹現貨價格長期停留在每噸度 2,800 至 3,200 美元高位，與中國境內每噸 55 萬至 65 萬元人民幣的行情形成定價溢價。Soaring demand for high-grade cemented carbides forms the bedrock of the prevailing market squeeze. In terms of downstream end-use, China's total tungsten demand is projected to reach 86,800 metric tons in 2026, with cemented carbides accounting for 51,000 tons, or 59%, while total supply is forecast at only roughly 85,100 tons, visibly widening the supply-demand deficit. A more critical catalyst is the high rate of wear on tungsten carbide micro-drills during the manufacturing of high-layer AI server circuit boards, which has stoked urgent demand for refined metal. Under policy mandates across the U.S. and Europe to build non-Chinese supply chains, international APT availability remains constrained, keeping Rotterdam spot prices pinned at $2,800 to $3,200 per metric ton unit—a substantial premium over China's domestic prices of 550,000 to 650,000 yuan per metric ton.

官方資金注資催化回收供應鏈溢價Sovereign Subsidies Drive Scrap Refining Premiums

面對海外新增礦山精礦無法立即轉化為高純度仲鎢酸銨的技術斷層，歐美政府選擇直接透過資本介入重塑供應版圖。美國政府向本土業者Elmet注資 4.5 億美元，美國國防後勤局更釋出 20 億美元戰略採購規模。在官方力量催化下，具備成熟提煉能力的回收鎢料已佔全球邊際供給達 35%，享有高度實質定價溢價。台灣提煉業者聯友金屬順應此一缺口，規劃將鎢酸鈉年產能從 6,000 噸翻倍提升至 12,000 噸，法人預估其 2026 年與 2027 年獲利能力將出現倍數級躍升，反映出非中精煉產能已成為稀缺戰略資產。Confronting a technological bottleneck where newly developed overseas mine concentrates cannot be immediately refined into high-purity APT, Western governments are turning to direct capital injections to reshape the supply map. The U.S. government has poured $450 million into domestic refiner Elmet, while the Defense Logistics Agency launched a $2 billion strategic procurement initiative. Catalyzed by state backing, recycled tungsten from established refiners now accounts for 35% of marginal global supply, commanding a steep price premium. Taiwan-based secondary refiner Lien You Metal is expanding to capture this window, planning to double its annual sodium tungstate capacity from 6,000 to 12,000 metric tons. Analysts project its profitability could scale multi-fold across 2026 and 2027, illustrating how non-Chinese refining assets have evolved into scarce strategic infrastructure.

新礦轉化進度牽制提煉商營運槓桿Mine-Conversion Timelines Cap Operational Leverage

回收鎢提煉商的高額獲利槓桿並非全無隱憂，其邊際溢價正受到新礦產能開出進程與各國廢料貿易政策的雙重制約。南韓Sangdong礦第 1 期規劃年處理礦石 64 萬噸、產出 2,300 噸鎢精礦，國際礦商Almonty亦規劃在 2028 年釋出 4,000 至 6,000 噸氧化鎢產能。一旦海外將精礦直接提煉為高純度仲鎢酸銨的能力提早落地，現有的區域現貨溢價空間恐遭壓縮。另一方面，若各國對回收廢料實施更嚴格的出口限制，擴產廠商在採購原料時的成本墊高風險與新產線的試俥稼動率表現，將直接考驗市場給予的重估預期。The high profit leverage enjoyed by secondary tungsten refiners is not without vulnerabilities, as margin premiums are hemmed in by both newly developed mine conversion timelines and shifting scrap-trade barriers. Phase 1 of South Korea's Sangdong mine is engineered to process 640,000 metric tons of ore annually to yield 2,300 tons of tungsten concentrate, while global miner Almonty plans to bring 4,000 to 6,000 tons of tungsten oxide capacity online by 2028. Should overseas facilities successfully convert concentrates directly into high-purity APT ahead of schedule, the current regional spot premium could rapidly compress. Furthermore, should governments impose stricter export restrictions on recyclable scrap, rising raw material procurement costs and initial ramp-up utilization rates on new lines will directly test the market's bullish re-rating thesis.

本刊判斷，全球鎢原料市場已進入地緣溢價與產能割裂的重組階段。短期內回收料業者憑藉成熟提煉產能與合規優勢，持續享有強勁定價話語權。後續觀察重點在於南韓關鍵礦山投產後，海外仲鎢酸銨現貨溢價是否出現收斂跡象，以及指標擴產廠商在新線試俥過程中的產能稼動表現與料源穩定度。We assess that the global tungsten market has entered a structural realignment characterized by geopolitical price premiums and split refining capacity. Over the near term, secondary refiners boasting mature conversion assets and compliance advantages will continue to wield robust pricing power. Critical indicators to monitor next include whether overseas APT spot premiums narrow once key South Korean mines come online, alongside the operational utilization rates and feedstock consistency demonstrated by bellwether refiners running new production lines.