半導體先進製程邁向埃米級節點，物理極限倒逼晶圓代工架構發生根本性變革，也徹底重構了消耗性材料的市場版圖。研究機構調升中砂的獲利預估，關鍵在於台積電A16 製程的化學機械平坦化（CMP）道數，已確認將從先前的 55 道大幅擴增至 77 道，增幅高達 4 成。背後核心驅動力來自晶背供電與複雜的多層互連技術，這使得單一晶圓所需的研磨拋光工序成倍增加。中砂在先進製程關鍵耗材的單片內容價值預計提升 20%至 30%，讓這家本土材料業者成功打破海外寡占防線，在資本支出週期波動中建立起獨立的成長曲線。As semiconductor manufacturing pushes into the angstrom era, physical limits are forcing fundamental overhauls of foundry architectures and remaking the market for process consumables. Research houses have upgraded their earnings models for Kinik, keyed to confirmation that the number of Chemical Mechanical Planarization (CMP) steps in TSMC's A16 process will surge from 55 to 77—a 40% leap. This increase is driven primarily by backside power delivery networks and intricate multilayer interconnects, which multiply the grinding and polishing passes required per wafer. With Kinik's content value per wafer in advanced nodes expected to climb 20% to 30%, the domestic consumables supplier has pierced an entrenched overseas oligopoly, charting an independent growth trajectory decoupled from broader capex cyclicality.

架構變革倍增耗材用量推升研磨價值Architectural Shifts Multiply Consumables Usage and CMP Value

先進晶片架構轉向環繞式閘極與晶背供電，對晶圓正反兩面的平整度提出了前所未有的嚴苛要求。在N2 與A16 節點中，晶圓製造廠每投片 10 萬片晶圓，其所消耗的再生晶圓與鑽石碟數量，已經達到前代節點的 2 至 3 倍之多。這種非線性的消耗速度，直接轉化為材料供應商的營收動能。目前中砂鑽石碟業務佔整體營收比重已達 63%，其中供應N3 與N2 等先進製程的佔比提升至 22%，顯示產品組合正加速往高技術壁壘轉移。隨著客戶導入埃米節點進度加速，拋光道數的增加將不再只是暫時性的技術試驗，而是長期結構性需求的起點。The architectural pivot toward Gate-All-Around (GAA) nanosheets and backside power delivery imposes unprecedented planarity requirements on both the front and back surfaces of the wafer. At the N2 and A16 nodes, fab consumption of reclaimed wafers and diamond disk dressers per 100,000 wafer starts is running two to three times higher than in previous generations. This non-linear consumption surge converts directly into top-line momentum for consumables makers. Kinik's diamond disk segment already generates 63% of total revenue, with sales into advanced nodes such as N3 and N2 rising to 22% of that mix, signaling a rapid portfolio migration toward higher technological barriers. As customer deployment of angstrom-class nodes accelerates, the proliferation of polishing passes is proving to be the genesis of structural, long-term demand rather than a temporary process trial.

產能大舉擴建因應埃米節點爆發需求Aggressive Capacity Expansion Targets Angstrom-Node Surge

為承接大幅跳升的耗材需求，中砂展開積極的擴產藍圖。公司規劃在 2026 年底將鑽石碟月產能拉升至 7 萬片以上，並在 2027 年進一步擴建至 9 萬到 10 萬片水準。與此同時，再生晶圓業務的高階產能已於第 2 季提前達到 40 萬片滿載運轉，高階產品毛利率更朝向 60%大關逼近。受惠於出貨放量與製程升級，研究機構預估中砂 2026 年每股盈餘將達 14.23 元，2027 年更上修 11%至 20.85 元，對應目前本益比約 39 倍與 27 倍。產能規模的擴張與高毛利產品比重同步拉升，使公司在迎接次世代晶片量產時，具備了更具彈性的獲利槓桿空間。To capture this step-function demand surge, Kinik is advancing an ambitious capacity roadmap. The company plans to scale monthly diamond disk output beyond 70,000 units by year-end 2026, before expanding further to between 90,000 and 100,000 units in 2027. Concurrently, its advanced reclaimed wafer capacity hit full utilization at 400,000 units monthly in the second quarter, with premium product gross margins approaching the 60% threshold. Riding volume expansion and node transitions, analysts project Kinik's earnings per share will hit NT$14.23 in 2026, with 2027 estimates revised upward by 11% to NT$20.85—translating to price-to-earnings multiples of approximately 39 and 27 times, respectively. Capacity scale and an expanding mix of high-margin lines provide operational leverage heading into next-generation commercial chip production.

海外龍頭防線未破與送樣時程風險Incumbent Moats and Sampling Validation Bottlenecks

儘管鑽石碟領域已站穩腳步，但向外擴張的道路仍面臨國際既有勢力的強力阻擊。中砂目前積極開發的減薄砂輪產品，被視為打破日本大廠Disco在半導體研磨領域長期壟斷的戰略武器。這類關鍵耗材的轉換成本極高，晶圓製造龍頭對更換供應商抱持極度審慎態度。減薄砂輪當前仍處於主力客戶的內部送樣驗證階段，尚未轉化為穩定營收貢獻。若後續驗證期程拉長，或是客戶因量產良率考量而延後導入，這項被寄予厚望的高毛利非鑽石碟業務，在未來的成長貢獻度上恐將不如市場原先的樂觀預期。While Kinik has entrenched its footprint in diamond disks, lateral expansion confronts stout resistance from established global peers. The grinding wheels Kinik is developing are viewed as a strategic instrument to breach Japanese supplier Disco's long-standing monopoly over semiconductor wafer thinning. Switching costs for these critical process consumables are steep, leaving tier-one chipmakers hesitant to alter established supplier allocations. Thinning wheels remain in internal customer qualification and have yet to generate reliable commercial revenues. If qualification timelines drag on or customers defer deployment to protect initial production yields, this high-margin non-diamond business may fail to match the market's initial growth projections.

埃米製程技術升級確立了CMP耗材的長期增長趨勢，中砂已藉由鑽石碟成功切入核心供應鏈。未來的觀察重心主要落在晶圓代工龍頭在先進節點與晶背供電的量產時程推進速度，以及中砂在產能陸續開出後，產品高毛利溢價能否持續抵禦折舊與營運成本的上升壓力。The migration to angstrom-class nodes establishes a secular demand trend for CMP consumables, with Kinik securing core supply-chain positioning through its diamond disk franchise. Near-term focus centers on the speed at which leading foundries bring advanced nodes and backside power delivery to volume production, alongside Kinik's capacity to preserve gross margin premiums against expanding depreciation and operating overhead as new capacity comes online.