AHI Journal

2026 年 9 月 17 日 星期四Thursday, September 17, 2026登入Log In訂閱Subscribe
實體基建與能源約束PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE & POWER

AI伺服器功耗升級推升高壓元件 強茂與廣閎科掌握轉單優勢AI Power Spike Drives High-Voltage Demand; Panjit and Semi-Engine Secure Spillovers

歐美IDM產能聚焦高壓碳化矽引發中低壓轉單,台廠在伺服器散熱與電源架構升級中受惠。Western IDMs shifting lines toward high-voltage SiC are triggering mid- and low-voltage order spillovers to Taiwanese power discrete suppliers amid rack architecture upgrades.

server(資料中心伺服器機櫃實景)
圖:Photo: Christopher Bowns 授權:License: CC BY-SA 2.0 來源:Source: Wikimedia Commons
2026 年 9 月 17 日 星期四Thursday, September 17, 2026風險Risk電源與功率元件Power & Discretes免費版Free Edition
下一個可驗證時點Next checkpoint10/10(六)6693 廣閎科 9 月營收(10 日前申報)
到時候看What to check9 月營收年增率是否高於前 3 個月平均(前 3 個月平均年增 +110.3%);月增率有沒有延續,累計年增率的方向。

全球人工智慧運算架構升級正掀起一場被低估的硬體電源革命。隨著算力密度飆升,伺服器供電系統加速轉向 48V直流架構,散熱機制亦由傳統氣冷全面跨入液冷時代,推動高功率無刷直流馬達與散熱驅動元件需求翻倍噴發。與此同時,歐美整合元件製造大廠正將戰略資源與產能全數鎖定於超高壓碳化矽領域,無意間在中低壓伺服器元件市場留出供給缺口。這項產業板塊位移,直接讓具備垂直整合能力的台灣功率元件供應商接管全球訂單。強茂與廣閎科等業者的伺服器營收在單季內繳出翻倍以上的成長動能,印證了這波架構變革不僅是規格更新,更是一場供應鏈重分配的深層轉折。The architectural overhaul of global artificial intelligence hardware is triggering an underappreciated revolution in power delivery. Surging compute densities are accelerating server system transitions to 48V direct-current architectures, while thermal management is shifting from legacy air cooling to liquid systems, driving demand for high-power brushless DC (BLDC) motors and thermal driver components. At the same time, European and American integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) are concentrating their strategic capex and wafer allocations on ultra-high-voltage silicon carbide, unintentionally vacating supply in mid-to-low-voltage server components. This structural realignment has allowed vertically integrated Taiwanese power component suppliers to capture global share, with server-driven revenues at Panjit and Champion Microelectronic more than doubling in a single quarter.

液冷散熱驅動架構全面改寫規格Liquid-Cooling Architecture Overhauls Component Specifications

伺服器由傳統風冷邁入水冷機櫃的技術跨越,直接重塑了功率元件的配置邏輯。單台水冷機櫃內部必須配置數十組高可靠度的液冷幫浦與散熱風扇,驅動這些機構運作的 48V無刷直流馬達晶片,其用量相較傳統伺服器呈現倍數級暴增。這類馬達控制晶片不僅需要承受極高的電壓波動,更對散熱效率與連續運作的穩定度有著極其嚴格的工業標準。以廣閎科為例,該公司第 2 季伺服器相關營收繳出季增 138%的爆發性成績,單季每股純益更一舉攻上 2.21 元歷史新高,充分驗證了高階水冷系統對散熱晶片拉貨動能的剛性支撐,也反映出高單價利基型元件在整體營收結構中所扮演的關鍵推手。The technical leap from standard air cooling to liquid-cooled server racks is fundamentally rewriting component design criteria. A single liquid-cooled rack requires dozens of ultra-reliable liquid pumps and radiator fans, driving a multi-fold surge in the consumption of 48V BLDC motor control chips relative to legacy architectures. These motor controllers must not only withstand steep voltage transients, but also satisfy rigorous industrial reliability standards for thermal dissipation and uninterrupted operation. Champion Microelectronic underscored this trend in the second quarter, posting a 138% quarter-over-quarter leap in server-related revenue while earnings per share reached a record NT$2.21. This performance validates the inelastic demand for thermal chips generated by advanced liquid cooling, cementing high-ASP niche silicon as a key revenue driver.

歐美轉單與地緣整合擴大市佔版圖Western Reallocations and Regional Consolidation Expand Market Share

歐美半導體龍頭將晶圓製造量能大舉調往車用與工業級高壓碳化矽元件,為中低壓市場製造出結構性供需斷層。與此同時,歐美一線雲端服務業者對非中資供應鏈的審查標準更趨嚴苛,使兼具前段晶圓製造與後段封裝測試垂直整合能力的台廠迅速脫穎而出。強茂憑藉自主製程實力避開了供應鏈去化阻礙,成功切入全球主流伺服器代工體系。法人預期強茂 2026 年每股純益中位數將達 5.03 元、2027 年挑戰 6.95 元;廣閎科 2026 年每股純益預估達 8.69 元、2027 年更上看 11.13 元。這項預測反映市場對台廠在伺服器電源核心料件市場擴大份額、確立長期獲利能力的高度預期。As Western semiconductor bellwethers redirect wafer runs to automotive and industrial high-voltage silicon carbide, a structural supply gap has emerged in mid-to-low-voltage segments. Concurrently, tier-one Western cloud service providers are tightening provenance audits on their hardware ecosystems, allowing vertically integrated Taiwanese suppliers—with captive front-end wafer fabrication and back-end assembly and test—to stand out. Panjit leveraged internal manufacturing capabilities to navigate supply chain cleanups and break into mainstream global server ODM platforms. Analysts project Panjit's median 2026 earnings per share will hit NT$5.03 before challenging NT$6.95 in 2027, while Champion Microelectronic is forecast to deliver EPS of NT$8.69 in 2026 and reach NT$11.13 in 2027, reflecting confidence in market-share gains and structural profitability.

晶圓代工漲價與消費電子拖累毛利Foundry Price Hikes and Consumer Electronics Drags Weigh on Margins

儘管伺服器業務成長動能強勁,投資架構中仍存在上游製造成本攀升與終端需求分化的潛在變數。若八吋晶圓代工產能持續吃緊引發代工價格調漲,將直接墊高功率元件的生產成本,侵蝕產品附加價值的擴張空間。另一方面,消費性電子市場的復甦力道仍顯遲緩,台系業者旗下非伺服器產品線佔比依舊可觀,一旦標準型產品遭遇價格競爭與產能利用率下滑,整體獲利率的提升幅度恐將不如預期順暢。伺服器高毛利產品的營收貢獻能否在未來數季迅速擴張,並有效對沖成熟製程代工成本的漲價壓力,將是檢驗台廠獲利體質是否能真正脫胎換骨的關鍵核心。Despite robust server momentum, the investment thesis faces headwinds from higher upstream wafer costs and diverging end-market demand. Sustained tightness across eight-inch foundry capacity could trigger foundry price hikes, inflating production costs for discrete power components and narrowing margins. Furthermore, the recovery across consumer electronics remains sluggish, and Taiwanese power chipmakers retain meaningful exposure to non-server categories. If commoditized product lines face price erosion and declining factory utilization, blended margin expansion could stall. The pacing at which high-margin server products scale to offset mature-node foundry cost inflation will determine whether Taiwanese suppliers can permanently elevate their baseline profitability.

本刊判斷,功率半導體板塊的投資焦點已從全面性景氣復甦,轉向高規格伺服器電源與散熱領域的利基競爭。接下來應密切觀察伺服器應用佔整體營收比重的推進速度,以及在面對上游晶圓代工成本變動下,各家業者毛利率能否維持逐季擴張態勢,確認此波拉貨是長期架構升級而非短線庫存回補。The investment narrative for power semiconductors has pivoted from a cyclical tide to niche execution in high-spec server power and thermal management. Investors must track the pace at which server applications expand as a share of total revenue, alongside each supplier's capacity to defend gross margins against volatile upstream foundry pricing, confirming that current demand reflects permanent architectural upgrades rather than transitory channel restocking.

含括水冷散熱功率元件用量明細表、機構EPS預估區間,以及第 4 季伺服器營收月增檢查條件。Contains our granular BOM component map for liquid-cooling power silicon, institutional EPS forecast corridors, and fourth-quarter server revenue sequential tracking metrics.

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本刊結論:Our verdict: 立場:偏多台系功率元件廠受惠AI伺服器架構升級帶動的轉單與營收成長事實;信心:中,伺服器驅動元件需求明確倍增但須提防上游代工成本擠壓毛利;否證:若廣閎科第 4 季伺服器營收月增率轉負,即證偽轉單動能持續的判斷。

接下來看什麼What to watch next

  1. 強茂第 3 季毛利率:門檻為 34.0%,第 3 季財報公布毛利率達到或超過 34.0%為成立,低於 34.0%為不成立。
  2. 廣閎科第 4 季伺服器產品營收佔比:門檻為 50%,第 4 季營收佔比維持在 50%以上為成立,低於 50%為不成立。
  3. 廣閎科第 4 季伺服器營收月增率:門檻為 0%,第 4 季各月營收月增率維持正值為成立,月增率轉為負值則為不成立。

風險燈號Risk Dashboard

總經政策Macro Policy
聯準會全票升息 1 碼且點陣圖暗示年內續升,美債殖利率破 5%壓抑資產估值。Unanimous 25-bps Fed hike and higher dot plot point to further tightening; yields above 5% compress equity multiples.
市場流動性Market Liquidity
外資台指期淨空單自高檔降至 7.6 萬口,現貨賣超縮減,但當沖比重逼近 40%。Foreign futures net shorts retreated from peaks to 76,000 contracts and spot selling slowed, but day trading near 40% heightens volatility.
產業敘事Industry Narrative
先進製程耗材、ABF載板與伺服器功率元件需求強勁,訂單能見度延伸至 2027 年。Demand for advanced packaging consumables, ABF substrates, and server power components remains strong, with visibility extending to 2027.
時間季節性Seasonality
9 月歷史負報酬窗口期尚未結束,季底法人作帳與央行會議密集期市場震盪加劇。September's historical negative-return window persists amid quarter-end institutional rebalancing and central bank rate decisions.

要聞速覽What’s News看完整內容 →full story →

市場Markets

外資期貨空單大減 6872 口Foreign Futures Net Shorts Fall by 6,872 Contracts9 月 16 日外資在期貨市場減持空單 6,872 口,淨空單降至 76,351 口,現貨賣超縮小至 179.8 億元,顯示籌碼面極端避險壓力出現邊際緩解。Foreign institutional investors covered 6,872 contracts in index futures on Sept.

聯邦基金利率調升至 4%Fed Lifts Funds Rate to 4%美國聯準會全體官員一致同意升息 25 個基點,基準借貸成本區間來到 3.75%至 4.00%;Federal Reserve officials voted unanimously to raise the ben…

美國 10 年期債息攀至 5.02%10-Year Treasury Yield Hovers at 5.02%受 8 月零售銷售月增 1.2%與進口物價上漲推動,美債 10 年期殖利率維持在 5.02%,高利率持續推升科技股折現率負擔。Propelled by a 1.2% monthly rise in August retail sales and climbing import prices, the U.S.

產業與企業Industry & Companies

華邦電併購英飛凌記憶體事業Winbond Acquires Infineon Memory Unit華邦電斥資 11.2 億美元收購英飛凌NOR Flash業務,合併後市佔率將升至 34%,有助掌握車用與AI伺服器編碼快閃記憶體定價權。Winbond agreed to buy Infineon's NOR Flash business for $1.1…

欣興高階ABF產能擴增 3 成Unimicron Expands High-End ABF Capacity 30%欣興因應AI伺服器載板供不應求,規劃 2027 年ABF產能擴增 30%至 40%,外資研究預估高階報價漲幅擴大將帶動毛利率站上 35%。Addressing tight AI server substrate supplies, Unimicron pla…

本期其他文章More From This Issue

回本期目錄 →Back to issue index →
算力擴張現實COMPUTE EXPANSION REALITY

3 大雲端巨頭半數資產未上線 基礎建設受制於電網交付延宕Half of Big Cloud Assets Offline as Grid Delays Bottleneck Infrastructure

Meta與Google在 2026 年上半年未上線資產比例達 50%,甲骨文亦逾 40%。市場持續預期雲端資本支出維持高成長,卻忽視了電網交付遞延正在拉長硬體沉澱週期。Meta and Google saw up to 50% of capital assets remain offline in the first half of 2026, with Oracle exceeding 40%. While markets bank on sustained high capex growth, delayed grid connections are stretching hardware gestation cycles.

2026-09-17總經與市場Markets科技巨頭與美股Big Tech & U.S. Equities
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記憶體產業併購整合MEMORY M&A CONSOLIDATION

華邦電以 11.2 億美元收購英飛凌業務 全球NOR市佔躍升 34%Winbond to Buy Infineon Unit for $1.12B, Pushing Global NOR Share to 34%

透過吸收海外車用驗證與高階技術,華邦電將編碼型快閃記憶體版圖擴大至全球第一。By integrating automotive qualifications and premium tech, Winbond will scale its NOR flash presence to become the world's largest supplier.

2026-09-17科技Technology記憶體Memory
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全球貨幣政策分歧GLOBAL MONETARY DIVERGENCE

聯準會全票升息一碼 點陣圖上修確立長期高利率結構Fed Votes Unanimously to Hike 25 Bps; Higher Dot Plot Solidifies 'Higher for Longer'

美國 8 月零售銷售強勁與進口物價上漲推升核心通膨壓力,聯準會展現對抗 2 次通膨的強硬決心。Strong August U.S. retail sales and rising import prices fueled core inflation pressures, reinforcing the central bank's resolve against secondary inflation.

2026-09-17總經與市場Markets總經與利率Macro & Rates
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載板供需與報價重估S一家研究機構TRATE PRICING DYNAMICS

欣興高階ABF報價漲幅擴大 法人集體上修 2027 年獲利逾 7 成Unimicron High-End ABF Price Hikes Expand; Analysts Lift 2027 Net Over 70%

AI晶片面積放大與晶背供電帶動載板消耗,欣興產能吃緊推動賣方上修獲利預期。Expanding AI die sizes and backside power delivery drive substrate layer counts, straining Unimicron capacity and spurring broad sell-side upgrades.

2026-09-17評等RatingsPCB 與載板PCB & Substrates
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半導體材料與地緣重組SEMICONDUCTOR MATERIALS & GEOPOLITICS

中砂擴產鑽石碟搶進A16 製程 先進製程CMP道數增加 4 成Kinik Expands Diamond Disk Capacity for A16 Node as CMP Steps Surge 40%

台積電埃米級節點推升化學機械平坦化耗材用量,本土材料商打破海外寡占並加速擴產。TSMC's angstrom-era nodes require heavier CMP consumable usage, allowing domestic material vendors to break foreign oligopolies through capacity expansion.

2026-09-17海外Global半導體Semiconductors
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本刊觀點Editor's View

電網堵塞與貨幣緊縮下的資本盲區Valuation Tug-of-War: Peak Yields vs. Fundamental Resilience

市場態:立場:看空供應鏈遠期資本支出指引;信心:中偏高;否證:雲端巨頭於財報季確認未通電機房全面加速併網且維持資本開支。Market State: Stance: Moderately bullish on semiconductor and server supply chains with pricing power; Confidence: Medium, tempered by 10-year Treasury yields topping 5% and persistent foreign spot selling; Invalidation: Foreign Taifex net shorts rebounding to 85,000 contracts and TAIEX breaking below its quarterly moving average at 44,700 points.

2026-09-17本刊觀點Editor's View綜合General
閱讀 →Read →