AHI Journal筹码快讯 · 资料日 2026-10-13
赢家分点怎么算、怎么读
大额买进日、胜率、赢家分点与估计成本的定义，以及读这些数字要注意的地方。
筹码快讯每一个数字怎么算、读的时候要注意什么，都整理在这一页。
How every number in Chip Flow is computed, and what to keep in mind when reading it.
加权指数49301.96−11.48成交金额8439.31 亿元−505.91 亿元柜买指数427.90+1.19外资买卖超−521.98 亿元−521.98 亿元投信买卖超+71.41 亿元+71.41 亿元自营商买卖超−142.94 亿元−142.94 亿元三大法人合计−593.51 亿元−593.51 亿元外资台指期净部位−82806 口+388 口集中市场融资余额6533.30 亿元+69.24 亿元布兰特原油期货106.65 美元/桶+1.93 美元
怎么算的
- 资料：交易所每日公布的券商分点进出与收盘价；最新资料日 2026-10-13，每个交易日盘后更新。
- 范围：2025-10-16 起 240 个交易日；只看前 20 个交易日平均成交值 2,000 万元以上的普通股（862 档）。
- 其中 22 个交易日（2026-10-08、2026-10-12、2026-10-13…）以逐档查询补齐，只涵盖当时 20 日均额 1,000 万元以上的股票。
- 大额买进日：某分点当天净买超达当日成交量 0.5% 以上、且至少 30 张，而且当天没有同时大量卖出（买卖互抵不到一半）。
- 胜率：大额买进日收盘买进、到第 20 个交易日收盘为上涨的比例；期间遇到除权、减资、分割等单日涨跌超过 10.5% 的情况，那一笔不计。
- 赢家分点：在同一档股票上大额买进至少 6 次，胜率至少 6 成、而且比同一段期间「任何一天买进这档」的上涨比例高出 10 个百分点以上，平均 20 日涨幅也多 1.5 个百分点以上；当冲型与隔日冲型的分点排除。每档最多列 10 家。
- 分点文件：在 3 档以上股票名列赢家的分点（本期 401 家）各有一页，列出它名列赢家的股票、当天在全部股票的买卖、近 20 个交易日的动向、最近的大额买进与逐月纪录。
- 成本：用这段期间的买卖纪录以移动平均法估算；期间内卖多于买的分点，真实成本在资料之外，不列成本。
- 优先顺序：今日赢家分点买超的股票，五项各自在当天的清单里换成 0 到 100 的排名分数再加权——买盘力道 30%（净买金额与占成交量各半）、赢家家数 20%、赢家纪录 25%（买超的赢家分点胜率高出同档任一日的幅度，次数少的打折）、连续买超 15%（最长连续天数，上限 5 日）、成本位置 10%（股价距赢家平均成本越近越高）。赢家合计净买 500 万元以上才排名次。这是阅读顺序，不是买进建议，也不代表之后的涨跌。
- 行为统计：当冲互抵率＝分点当天买卖互相抵销的比例（两边较小者合计除以较大者合计）；隔日冲率＝单日净买 30 张以上之后，隔一个交易日卖回该笔一半以上的比例。赢家分点排除前者超过 50%、后者超过 40% 的分点。
- 代号变更：券商合并后，分点会改用新代号。指定追踪的分点若改过代号，新旧两段纪录合并计算；其他分点的新旧代号分开计算，合并前后的纪录不相连。
- 订阅版另有：指定追踪分点的专页，以及可依名称或代号查任何一家券商分点的站内搜索。
- 换算：收盘价与分点资料都没有还原除权、减资与分割。期间内单日涨跌超过 10.5% 的日子（本期 56 档）视为这类事件，事件之前的张数与价格换算成今日口径，成本、留仓与走势图都是换算后的数字。涨跌没超过这个幅度的除息不换算：除息前买进的成本没有扣掉股利，股价距成本会少算大约一个殖利率。
读法提醒
- 赢家是依过去买点之后的表现排出来的，过去买对不代表之后会对；单一分点在单一档的次数通常只有个位数到十几次，运气占的比重不小。
- 同一家分点放到它大额买进过的全部股票上看，胜率通常平凡得多；分点文件把「名列赢家的股票」和「其余股票」分开列，就是为了看清楚这一点。
- 一个分点代表的是在那家券商分公司下单的所有客户，不是单一投资人。
- 这段期间所有大额买进日的胜率为 55%，同一批股票任何一天买进为 54%。
- 本页为公开资料整理，非投资建议；作者非持牌投资顾问。
How it is computed
- Data: the exchange's daily broker-branch trading records and closing prices; latest date 2026-10-13, refreshed after every trading day.
- Scope: 240 trading days from 2025-10-16; ordinary shares with at least NT$20 million of average daily turnover over the prior 20 days (862 stocks).
- Big buy: a branch's net buying on the day is at least 0.5% of the day's volume and at least 30 lots, with little offsetting selling the same day.
- Hit rate: the share of big buys where the price 20 trading days later closed higher; windows containing a move of more than 10.5% in a day (ex-rights, capital reductions, splits) are dropped.
- Winning branch: at least 6 big buys in the same stock, a hit rate of at least 60% and at least 10 points above buying that stock on any day in the same period, plus an average 20-day gain at least 1.5 points higher; day-trading and next-day-flip branches are excluded. Up to 10 per stock.
- Branch profiles: every branch that ranks as a winner in 3 or more stocks (401 this period) has its own page with those stocks, its trades across all stocks on the day, the last 20 sessions, recent big buys and a month-by-month record.
- Cost: moving-average cost from the period's trades; branches that sold more than they bought are left blank because their real cost predates the data.
- Priority order: each of five measures is turned into a 0–100 rank score within the day's list of stocks with winners' net buying, then weighted — intensity 30% (net value and share of volume, half each), breadth 20%, the buying winners' record 25% (hit rate above any-day buying, discounted for few buys), streak 15% (longest run, capped at 5 days) and distance from the winners' cost 10% (closer scores higher). Only stocks with NT$5 million or more of winners' net buying are ranked. It is a reading order, not a recommendation, and says nothing about what happens next.
- Behaviour: the same-day offset ratio is the share of a branch's buying and selling that cancels out within a day (sum of the smaller side over the larger); the next-day flip rate is how often, after a net buy of 30 lots or more, it sold at least half back the next session. Winners exclude branches above 50% and 40%.
- Code changes: after a broker merger a branch trades under a new code. For tracked branches the records under both codes are combined; other branches are counted separately under each code, so their records break at the merger.
- Subscribers also get: a page for the tracked branches and site search for any broker branch by name or code.
- Restatement: prices and branch records are not adjusted for ex-rights, capital reductions or splits. Days with a move of more than 10.5% (56 stocks this period) are treated as such events, and earlier lots and prices are restated in today's units, so costs, positions and charts are restated figures. Smaller ex-dividend drops are not restated: a cost paid before the ex-date still includes the dividend, so the price-vs-cost gap is understated by roughly one dividend yield.
Read with care
- Winners are ranked on what happened after past buys; that does not mean the next buy will work. Sample sizes are usually in the single digits or teens, so luck matters.
- Across every stock a branch made big buys in, its hit rate is usually far more ordinary; the branch profiles show the stocks where it ranks as a winner and all other stocks separately for that reason.
- A branch aggregates every client trading through that broker office, not one investor.
- Across all big buys in the period the hit rate was 55%; buying the same stocks on any day gave 54%.
- A compilation of public data, not investment advice.
本页为交易所公开资料的整理，非投资建议；作者非持牌投资顾问。
A compilation of public exchange data, not investment advice.
