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2026 年 9 月 3 日 星期四Thursday, September 03, 2026登入Log In訂閱Subscribe
市場快訊Market Brief

4.8% 殖利率壓過 950 億美元 AI 積壓訂單A 4.8% Yield Outweighs $95 Billion in AI Backlogs

2026 年 9 月 3 日 星期四Thursday, September 03, 2026免費閱讀Free to read

要聞速覽What’s News

市場Markets

台股 2 日蒸發 1,091 點Taiwan Equities Erase 1,091 Points in Two Days9/2 跌 784 點、9/3 再跌 307.06 點收 45,857.66,櫃買失守季線跌 2.88%。回檔集中在前波漲最兇的族群,指數自 48,218 點高點回撤約 4.9%。Following a 784-point drop on September 2, the index fell another 307.06 points on September 3 to close at 45,857.66, while the OTC index lost its quarterly line, falling 2.88%. Retracements concentrated in the previous leaders, pulling the index down about 4.9% from its peak of 48,218. 讀全文 →Read →

外資 2 日賣超 1,395 億Foreign Investors Sell NT$139.5 Billion in Two Days9/2 賣超 913.55 億元、9/3 再賣 481.46 億元,台指期淨空單自 85,329 口小減至 81,575 口。空單沒撤,反彈就缺主要買方。Foreign institutional investors net sold NT$91.3 billion on September 2 and another NT$48.1 billion on September 3. Net short positions in Taiex futures eased slightly from 85,329 contracts to 81,575 contracts. Without short covering, any rebound lacks a major buyer. 讀全文 →Read →

金融指數創歷史新高Financial Index Hits All-Time High金融類指數 9/3 收 3,481.59 點、漲 2.19%,同日電子類指數跌 0.85%。同一個交易日內完成一次完整的防禦轉向。The financial sub-index closed up 2.19% at 3,481.59 on September 3, while the electronics sub-index fell 0.85%. A complete defensive rotation was executed within a single trading session. 讀全文 →Read →

殖利率觸 4.818% 後回落Yield Retreats After Touching 4.818%10 年期美債殖利率一度攀上 2023 年 11 月來最高水準,收盤前回落至 4.78%。當天決定亞股價格的是折現率,不是需求。The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched its highest level since November 2023 before easing to 4.78% ahead of the close. Asian equities were driven by discount rates, not demand. 讀全文 →Read →

散戶多空比由負轉正Retail Long-Short Ratio Turns Positive小台散戶多空比自 −3.5% 翻為 +9.2%、微台自 −17.2% 翻為 +33.0%,選擇權賣買權未平倉比降至 77.16%。散戶偏多、法人偏空。The retail long-short ratio in mini-Taiex futures flipped from -3.5% to +9.2%, and micro-Taiex flipped from -17.2% to +33.0%. The options put-call open interest ratio fell to 77.16%, indicating retail traders are leaning long while institutions remain short. 讀全文 →Read →

產業與企業Industry & Companies

戴爾積壓訂單 950 億美元Dell Backlog Reaches $95 BillionAI 伺服器在手訂單季增約 85%,全年營收目標上修至 740 億美元。公司同時說明 15.0% 的伺服器營益率不具延續性,下季指引壓回 13 至 14%。AI server backlogs grew approximately 85% quarter-on-quarter, prompting Dell to raise its full-year revenue target to $74 billion. The company noted its 15.0% server operating margin is unsustainable, guiding next-quarter margins back to 13% to 14%. 讀全文 →Read →

博通 AI 營收年增 221%Broadcom AI Revenue Surges 221% YoY單季 AI 半導體 167 億美元,下季營收指引 348 億美元、略低於共識 350 億美元。2 年翻倍藍圖換來一家券商把調升評等。Quarterly AI semiconductor revenue reached $16.7 billion, while next-quarter revenue guidance of $34.8 billion came in slightly below the consensus of $35 billion. A roadmap to double revenue in two years prompted one brokerage to upgrade the stock to Buy. 讀全文 →Read →

南亞科 8 月營收 446.9 億Nanya Technology August Revenue Hits NT$44.6 Billion年增 561%,資本支出上限自 520 億元上調至 697 億元。9/3 股價跌 7.82%,是利多公告後賣消息的標準形態。Revenue rose 561% year-on-year, and the capital expenditure ceiling was raised from NT$52 billion to NT$69.7 billion. Shares fell 7.82% on September 3, a classic sell-the-news reaction following the positive announcement. 讀全文 →Read →

ABF 交期拉到 14 個月ABF Substrate Lead Times Stretch to 14 Months較 2025 年初的 6 至 8 個月拉長近倍,2026 年 6 大供應商產能全數被預訂。第 4 季報價凍漲傳聞卻讓南電跌停、景碩跌 8.5%。Lead times have nearly doubled from the 6 to 8 months seen in early 2025, with the capacity of the top six suppliers fully booked through 2026. However, rumors of flat pricing in the fourth quarter sent Nan Ya Printed Circuit Board to limit down, while Kinsus fell 8.5%. 讀全文 →Read →

市場快照Market Snapshot

市場快照:當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)Change for the session (comparable rows only)−4%+4%0加權指數Taiex Index−0.67%45,857.6645,857.66櫃買指數OTC Index−2.88%395.25395.25金融類指數Financial Sub-Index+2.19%3,481.593,481.59電子類指數電子類指數Electronics Sub-Ind…−0.85%2,895.812,895.81費城半導體指數費城半導體指數Philadelphia Semicon…+0.45%11,339.2511,339.25布蘭特原油Brent Crude+1.04%95.63 美元/桶$95.63/barrel日經 225Nikkei 225−2.85%64,325.6464,325.64美元兌日圓USD/JPY−0.93%158.70158.70市場快照:當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)Change for the session (comparable rows only)−4%+4%0加權指數Taiex Index−0.67%45,857.6645,857.66櫃買指數OTC Index−2.88%395.25395.25金融類指數金融類指數Financial S…+2.19%3,481.593,481.59電子類指數電子類指數Electronics…−0.85%2,895.812,895.81費城半導體…費城半導體指數Philadelphi…+0.45%11,339.2511,339.25布蘭特原油Brent Crude+1.04%95.63 美元/桶$95.63/barrel日經 225Nikkei 225−2.85%64,325.6464,325.64美元兌日圓USD/JPY−0.93%158.70158.70
加權指數Taiex Index45,857.6645,857.66−307.06(−0.67%)-307.06 (-0.67%)
櫃買指數OTC Index395.25395.25−11.71(−2.88%)-11.71 (-2.88%)
上市成交金額TSE Turnover9,462.71 億元NT$946.2 billion−302.29 億元-NT$30.2 billion
外資現貨買賣超Foreign Net Buy/Sell (Spot)−481.46 億元-NT$48.1 billion−1,395.01 億元(2 日累計)-NT$139.5 billion (Two-day cumulative)
投信買賣超Investment Trust Net Buy/Sell+11.42 億元+NT$1.1 billion+46.70 億元(轉為買超)+NT$4.6 billion (Turned net buyer)
自營商買賣超Dealer Net Buy/Sell−167.08 億元-NT$16.7 billion+36.54 億元+NT$3.6 billion
外資台指期淨未平倉Foreign Taiex Futures Net Open Interest−81,575 口-81,575 contracts+3,754 口+3,754 contracts
融資餘額(9/2)Margin Debt Balance (9/2)5,856.75 億元NT$585.6 billion+75.60 億元+NT$7.5 billion
選擇權賣買權未平倉比Options Put/Call Open Interest Ratio77.16%77.16%−6.74 個百分點-6.74 percentage points
台指選擇權隱含波動率Taiex Options Implied Volatility25.65%25.65%−0.45 個百分點-0.45 percentage points
金融類指數Financial Sub-Index3,481.593,481.59+74.66(+2.19%)+74.66 (+2.19%)
電子類指數Electronics Sub-Index2,895.812,895.81−24.95(−0.85%)-24.95 (-0.85%)
費城半導體指數Philadelphia Semiconductor Index11,339.2511,339.25+50.64(+0.45%)+50.64 (+0.45%)
美國 10 年期公債殖利率U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield4.78%(盤中高 4.818%)4.78% (Intraday High 4.818%)−2.0bp-2.0bp
布蘭特原油Brent Crude95.63 美元/桶$95.63/barrel+1.04%+1.04%
日經 225Nikkei 22564,325.6464,325.64−1,889.70(−2.85%)-1,889.70 (-2.85%)
美元兌日圓USD/JPY158.70158.70−0.93%(日圓升值)-0.93% (Yen appreciated)

風險燈號Risk Dashboard

總經Macro
布蘭特 95.63 美元越過 90 美元分水嶺且前置條件為美伊軍事行動,核心 PCE 3.3%、9 月升息機率升至近 7 成。Brent crude at $95.63 has crossed the $90 threshold, driven by U.S.-Iran military tensions. Core PCE stands at 3.3%, and the probability of a September rate hike has risen to nearly 70%.
流動性Liquidity
融資 5,856.75 億元連七增但未觸 6,500 億警戒;外資台指期淨空單 8.1 萬口處極端空區,指數未創高。Margin debt rose for the seventh consecutive session to NT$585.6 billion, but remains below the NT$650 billion warning level. Foreign net shorts in Taiex futures of 81,000 contracts are in extreme bearish territory, capping index highs.
產業敘事Industry Narrative
ABF 交期 12 至 14 個月、DDR4 續漲,但載板凍漲傳聞已戳破漲價敘事;CSP 完工 GW 與指引落差待驗。ABF lead times have stretched to 12-14 months and DDR4 prices continue to rise, but rumors of flat substrate pricing have punctured the price-hike narrative. The gap between CSP completed gigawatts and guidance awaits verification.
時間性Seasonality
9 月為台股歷史上唯一系統性負報酬月份,期中選舉年 8 月中至 10 月中為結構性弱勢期。September is historically the only month with systematic negative returns for Taiwan equities. In mid-term election years, the period from mid-August to mid-October represents a structurally weak window.

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