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2026 年 9 月 4 日 星期五Friday, September 04, 2026登入Log In訂閱Subscribe
市場快訊Market Brief

95 美元油價擊落台股 1,091 點$95 Oil Knocks 1,091 Points Off Taiex

2026 年 9 月 4 日 星期五Friday, September 04, 2026免費閱讀Free to read

要聞速覽What’s News

市場Markets

指數 2 日失血 1,091 點Index Bleeds 1,091 Points in Two Days9 月 2 日跌 784 點、3 日再跌 307.06 點,收 45,857.66 點,成交值退到 9,462 億元。2 天抹去 8 月最後 1 週的漲幅,價跌量縮由賣方主導。The Taiex fell 784 points on Sept. 2 and another 307.06 points on Sept. 3 to close at 45,857.66, with turnover shrinking to NT$946.2 billion. The two-day drop erased the gains from the final week of August, with the price drop and volume contraction driven by sellers. 讀全文 →Read →

外資 2 日賣 1,395 億Foreign Investors Sell NT$139.5 Billion in Two Days9 月 2 日賣超 913.55 億元、3 日再賣 481.46 億元,台指期淨空單一度累積到 85,329 口。空單 3 日回補 3,754 口,賣壓稍緩但未反轉。Foreign institutional investors net sold NT$91.3 billion on Sept. 2 and another NT$48.1 billion on Sept. 3, with net short positions in Taiex futures peaking at 85,329 contracts. Shorts covered 3,754 contracts on Sept. 3, easing selling pressure slightly without reversing the trend. 讀全文 →Read →

櫃買單日跌 2.88%OTC Index Drops 2.88% in a Single Day櫃買指數收 395.25 點並跌破季線,跌幅是加權指數的 4 倍多。中小型股的槓桿與流動性風險先於權值股浮現。The OTC index closed at 395.25, breaking below its quarterly moving average. Its decline was more than four times that of the weighted index, showing that leverage and liquidity risks in mid- and small-cap stocks are surfacing ahead of large-caps. 讀全文 →Read →

金融指數漲 2.19%Financial Index Rises 2.19%金融類股 9 月 3 日收 3,481.59 點,玉山金單日漲 6.67%。資金從記憶體與載板換到殖利率最穩的族群,屬輪動而非撤離。The financial sector index closed at 3,481.59 on Sept. 3, with E.Sun Financial rising 6.67% on the day. Capital shifted from memory and substrates to the most stable dividend-yielding groups, indicating rotation rather than capital flight. 讀全文 →Read →

布蘭特站上 95 美元Brent Crude Tops $95布蘭特收 95.63 美元、西德州 91.01 美元,10 年期美債盤中觸 4.818%。全球政府債殖利率指標 3.72%,2008 年中以來最高。Brent crude closed at $95.63 and WTI at $91.01, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 4.818% intraday. The global sovereign bond yield benchmark hit 3.72%, its highest level since mid-2008. 讀全文 →Read →

產業與企業Industry & Companies

戴爾積壓訂單 950 億Dell Backlog Hits $95 BillionAI伺服器在手訂單 950 億美元、季增約 85%,全年AI伺服器營收指引上修到 740 億美元,股價單日漲 15.81%。訂單的上限已轉為記憶體模組供給。AI server backlog reached $95 billion, up roughly 85% quarter-on-quarter. Full-year AI server revenue guidance was raised to $74 billion, sending the stock up 15.81% in a single day. The ceiling on orders has shifted to memory module supply. 讀全文 →Read →

博通AI營收增 221%Broadcom AI Revenue Surges 221%單季AI半導體 167 億美元,下季營收指引 348 億美元低於市場的 350.5 億美元。盤後一度跌 4%、收盤僅跌 0.66%,利多之後賣消息。Quarterly AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7 billion, but next-quarter revenue guidance of $34.8 billion fell short of market expectations of $35.05 billion. The stock fell as much as 4% after hours before closing down just 0.66%, a classic sell-the-news reaction. 讀全文 →Read →

南亞科營收再創高Nanya Technology Revenue Hits New High8 月 446.9 億元、年增 560.85%,資本支出上限由 520 億元提高到 697 億元。漲價紅利與供給紀律的終點被寫進同一份計畫。August revenue reached NT$4.4 billion, up 560.85% year-on-year, as the company raised its capex ceiling from NT$52.0 billion to NT$69.7 billion. Price hikes and supply discipline are written into the same plan. 讀全文 →Read →

南電跌停、載板急凍Nanya PCB Hits Limit Down as Substrates FreezeBT載板第 4 季凍漲傳聞引爆賣壓,南電跌停收 1,080 元,景碩、臻鼎同跌逾 8%。缺料敘事的第一個裂縫出現在價格條款。Rumors of a fourth-quarter price freeze on BT substrates triggered a selloff. Nanya PCB hit its limit down to close at NT$1,080, while Kinsus and Zhen Ding both fell over 8%. The first crack in the material shortage narrative has appeared in pricing terms. 讀全文 →Read →

市場快照Market Snapshot

市場快照:當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)Change for the session (comparable rows only)−4%+4%0加權指數Taiex Index−0.67%45,857.6645,857.66櫃買指數OTC Index−2.88%395.25395.25電子類指數Electronics Index−0.85%2,895.812,895.81金融類指數Financials Index+2.19%3,481.593,481.59布蘭特原油Brent Crude+1.04%95.63 美元$95.63西德州原油WTI Crude+0.88%91.01 美元$91.01道瓊工業指數道瓊工業指數Dow Jones Industrial…+0.56%53,061.9553,061.95那斯達克指數Nasdaq Composite+0.45%26,217.8326,217.83費城半導體指數費城半導體指數Philadelphia Semicon…+0.45%11,339.2511,339.25日經 225Nikkei 225−2.85%64,325.6464,325.64市場快照:當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)當期漲跌幅(僅列同口徑可比較者)Change for the session (comparable rows only)−4%+4%0加權指數Taiex Index−0.67%45,857.6645,857.66櫃買指數OTC Index−2.88%395.25395.25電子類指數電子類指數Electronics…−0.85%2,895.812,895.81金融類指數金融類指數Financials…+2.19%3,481.593,481.59布蘭特原油Brent Crude+1.04%95.63 美元$95.63西德州原油WTI Crude+0.88%91.01 美元$91.01道瓊工業指數道瓊工業指數Dow Jones I…+0.56%53,061.9553,061.95那斯達克指數那斯達克指數Nasdaq Comp…+0.45%26,217.8326,217.83費城半導體…費城半導體指數Philadelphi…+0.45%11,339.2511,339.25日經 225Nikkei 225−2.85%64,325.6464,325.64
加權指數Taiex Index45,857.6645,857.66−307.06(−0.67%)−307.06 (−0.67%)
櫃買指數OTC Index395.25395.25−11.71(−2.88%)−11.71 (−2.88%)
上市成交值TSE Turnover9,462.71 億元NT$946.2 billion−302.29 億元−NT$30.2 billion
電子類指數Electronics Index2,895.812,895.81−0.85%−0.85%
金融類指數Financials Index3,481.593,481.59+2.19%+2.19%
台指期近月Taiex Futures (Front Month)45,83745,837−328(逆價差 38.66 點)−328 (Discount of 38.66 points)
外資現貨買賣超Foreign Net Buy/Sell (Spot)−481.46 億元−NT$48.1 billion−1,395.01 億元(2 日累計)−NT$139.5 billion (Two-day cumulative)
投信現貨買賣超Investment Trust Net Buy/Sell (Spot)+11.42 億元+NT$1.1 billion+11.42 億元+NT$1.1 billion
自營商現貨買賣超Dealer Net Buy/Sell (Spot)−167.08 億元−NT$16.7 billion−167.08 億元−NT$16.7 billion
外資台指期淨未平倉Foreign Futures Net Open Position−81,575 口−81,575 contracts+3,754 口(空單回補)+3,754 contracts (Short covering)
上市融資餘額TSE Margin Debt Balance5,787.39 億元NT$578.7 billion−69.36 億元−NT$6.9 billion
選擇權賣買權未平倉比Options Put/Call Ratio77.16%77.16%−6.74 個百分點−6.74 percentage points
新台幣兌美元NTD/USD31.75531.755−0.027 元(貶)−0.027 (Depreciation)
10 年期美國公債10-Year U.S. Treasury4.778%4.778%−2.01 個基點−2.01 bps
布蘭特原油Brent Crude95.63 美元$95.63+1.04%+1.04%
西德州原油WTI Crude91.01 美元$91.01+0.88%+0.88%
道瓊工業指數Dow Jones Industrial Average53,061.9553,061.95+0.56%+0.56%
那斯達克指數Nasdaq Composite26,217.8326,217.83+0.45%+0.45%
費城半導體指數Philadelphia Semiconductor Index11,339.2511,339.25+0.45%+0.45%
日經 225Nikkei 22564,325.6464,325.64−2.85%−2.85%
韓國KOSPIKOSPI6,562.726,562.72−3.99%−3.99%
恒生指數Hang Seng Index25,311.2125,311.21−0.07%−0.07%
DDR4 8GB現貨DDR4 8GB Spot34.29 美元$34.29−0.29%(年初至今+50.07%)−0.29% (+50.07% YTD)
黃金現貨Gold Spot4,376.41 美元$4,376.41+1.10%+1.10%

風險燈號Risk Dashboard

總經Macro
布蘭特 95.63 美元站在 85/90 美元分水嶺之上,核心PCE年增 3.3%、ISM價格 71.1,9 月升息機率被定價至 57%以上Brent crude at $95.63 sits above the $85/$90 threshold, core PCE is up 3.3% year-on-year, and ISM Prices stand at 71.1, pricing the probability of a September rate hike above 57%.
流動性Liquidity
融資餘額 5,787.39 億元距 6,500 億元警戒線尚有 712 億元,外資台指期淨空 81,575 口,散戶小台多空比由負轉正The margin debt balance of NT$578.7 billion remains NT$71.2 billion below the NT$650.0 billion warning line; foreign net shorts in Taiex futures stand at 81,575 contracts, while the retail mini-Taiex long/short ratio has turned positive.
產業敘事Industry Narrative
ABF交期拉長至 12 到 14 個月、DDR5 模組緊俏支撐漲價,但BT載板第 4 季凍漲傳聞與記憶體資本支出跳升是敘事裂縫ABF lead times stretching to 12-14 months and tight DDR5 module supply support price hikes, but rumors of a fourth-quarter BT substrate price freeze and jumping memory capex represent cracks in the narrative.
時間性Seasonality
9 月為台股唯一系統性負月,期中選舉年 8 月中至 10 月中屬結構性弱勢期,5 個交易日內 3 個通膨與就業數據September is historically the only systematically negative month for the Taiex; mid-August to mid-October in midterm election years is a structurally weak period, with three inflation and employment data releases packed into five trading days.
海外連動Global Correlation
日本 10 年期突破 3%、9 月 18 日升息定價近 100%,日經與韓股跌幅為台股的 1.7 至 2.4 倍,評價傳導未結束Japan's 10-year yield broke above 3% with a September 18 rate hike priced near 100%; Nikkei and KOSPI declines are 1.7 to 2.4 times that of the Taiex, indicating the valuation transmission is not yet over.

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